Insights Pulse Insights

May 12

DAI. Flight to quality/security 12-05-22, 15:15

Do you want to see a flight to quality? This is how it looks like.

Stablecoin (DAI) holder's balance rapidly growing since market started to crash.

And it has only increased since LUNA drama started.

A history of the market on one chart.

DAI holders balance against BTC and LUNA


Mar 30

AAVE: exhausted or not yet? 30-03-22, 17:30

Aave has been one of top pumping coins last days.

Digging into it's metrics we might notice that most AAVE metrics are looking good and healthy. Confident whales in 'buy' mode, network activity increasing - all good.

However a couple of red flags are clearly visible.

  1. MVRV 30d:

MVRV is too high. There is a high risk of short term traders taking profits and therefore pressing the price down. Cause this is exactly what MVRV 30d metric is about - average profit of 30d AAVE holders.

2. Whale Transaction Count

Whales transactions count seem to spike around price tops, this is what historical performance shows on the chart above. And the lates spike could also mark a local price top.

Complete onchain metrics AAVE overview:

Mar 24

DYDX and it's growth. The Network Growth 24-03-22, 18:37

One of Santiment screeners has brought DYDX to our attention earlier today.

It was the "DAA Anomalies" screener where DYDX flashed a spike in Daily Active Addresses:

The last spike seems quite unusual indeed for a stagnant price. Bullish divergence?

Then we found an astonishing Network Growth for DYDX. Have a look at this beauty:

It's in a very strong uptrend potentially able to pick up the price, along with strong Active Addresses. Previous attempts to pump took place on even lower Network Growth.

Possible confidence markers:

  • Price breaking 5.4 USD (above resistance)
  • Network Growth remaining over 118 (current value)
  • Active Addresses more than 380 (current level)


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

Mar 15

Chainlink and its circulation patterns 15-03-22, 19:53

Chainlink has our attention today because of a long period of losses visible on Network Profit Loss:

What does it mean? Since January, most LINK tokens were moved at a loss. Of course if we assume their previous moves as purchases, last moves as sells. Basically it's one of a bottom indicators. Just one.

Then we discovered an interesting token circulation pattern:

There were a few times when circulation increased, then dumped, and then price surged.

There is a chance we are now in a similar pattern.

If we compare it to LINK and it's circulation one year before...

...Then we could notice some difference. The pattern above working a bit differently. That could be the sign of a bull market itself. Circulation increases, then a lag happens, and then the price grows. Do you notice anything else?

Chart used:

Dec 29

MATIC hits new ATH: 4 metrics to watch 29-12-21, 03:03

MATIC's on another all-time high binge, so here are 4 quick metrics to watch:

1) Daily active addresses look very choppy - isolated spikes around local pumps, possibly a signal of increased sell-offs:

Unless we see a sustained uptick in address activity, we may expect volatile PA and a quick-fire correction with every new ATH push.

2) Daily deposits confirm the above - latest two price tops were marked by a clear uptick in deposits. These indicate rising sell-offs that may obstruct the rally:

3) Network Profit/Loss had a massive spike right as MATIC hit new ATH, suggesting significant profit-taking activity. Keep an eye on these if MATIC rallies once more:

4) Finally, last two price tops were marked with upticks in MATIC-related chatter, as the social sentiment hit 'peak hype'. This should be a good gauge of retail fear/greed as (or if) MATIC continues to pump:

Stay safe out there!

Jul 1

The comeback season for DeFi? 1-07-21, 01:13

Some of the largest DeFi tokens are experiencing quite the uptick in unique addresses activity over the past few days:

  • AAVE's daily active addresses are up +24.1% since Monday.
  • MKR's daily active addresses are up +97% since Monday.
  • UNI's daily active addresses are up +72.5% since Monday.
  • COMP's daily active addresses are up +72.8% since Monday.

Could this be the start of a new demand wave for DeFi?

It's still (way) too early to tell, but I'd keep an eye on these charts in the coming days. A sustained rise in address activity may be an early signal of growing network confidence and a possible 'return to form' for DeFi's blue chips.

Still a long way to go, but a decent start!


Apr 15

AAVE Bullwhales are back. How long will they remain? 15-04-21, 22:18

AAVE, like most of the market, has returned to bull mode.
TL,DR: Coinlist activates AAVE trading on Monday 19th. Whales reloaded 6 days earlier. Most aggressive jump in whale activity in 6 months. MVRV Z-score breaks downtrend. Accumulation reignited. Other lending protocols see silent accumulation.

Active Addresses spike on the 1h timeframe is a good giveaway of trading energy flowing into a clear new trend.
On the 10th of April, whale addreses holding more than 10k coins spiked a whoppping 25%
Whale (>100k USD) activity spike confirms that we are looking at true whale activity.
MVRV Z-score breaks out at the same time as the 60d MVRV flipping double digit positive.

NVT (in volume) spikes during the consolidation phase since February provided good buying opportunities.

This particular whale probably acted on fundamental grounds:

65k AAVE purchased at the beginning of April. Lending coins like LQTY also joined the portfolio at this time.

Mar 24

Chainlink's On-Chain and Social Fundamentals: A Snapshot of Where We Are 24-03-21, 07:12

March has been a rollercoaster for LINK Marines, as Chainlink's price fluctuated between $26 and $32 after its late February all-time high of ~$36.83. Let's see how some of its key metrics are looking:

Supply Help by Top 10 Exchange and Non-Exchange Addresses

The top 10 non-exchange LINK holders are holding around 2021-high levels, an encouraging sign. In the same respect, the top 10 exchange LINK holders the lowest amount since November, 2017. This lack of tokens available to sell off is also promising.

Weighted Social Sentiment

LINK is not having a major amount of discussion, and this is actually a good thing. Our studies prove that assets are more likely to rise when crowd discussion is dormant.

Daily Active Addresses & Deposits

Address activity has been declining, but at least deposits are also on the decline.

Whale Supply Distribution

The amount of whale holders with at least 10k $LINK continues to decline, a less than promising indication.

Sep 10

Open Thursday Thread 10-09-20, 15:42

This week continues a series of discussion threads in Insights.

A question today is:

Is there a chance farmers will move to blockchains with cheaper transactions?

To Tron for example, Pearl Finance.


Aug 27

Open Thursday Thread 27-08-20, 10:21

This week continues a series of Discussion threads in Insights.

A question today is:

How do you discover hot new DeFi tokens?

Any comment is good.