Mar 15
Chainlink has our attention today because of a long period of losses visible on Network Profit Loss:
What does it mean? Since January, most LINK tokens were moved at a loss. Of course if we assume their previous moves as purchases, last moves as sells. Basically it's one of a bottom indicators. Just one.
Then we discovered an interesting token circulation pattern:
There were a few times when circulation increased, then dumped, and then price surged.
There is a chance we are now in a similar pattern.
If we compare it to LINK and it's circulation one year before...
...Then we could notice some difference. The pattern above working a bit differently. That could be the sign of a bull market itself. Circulation increases, then a lag happens, and then the price grows. Do you notice anything else?
Chart used: https://app.santiment.net/s/4ofkTD-H
May 13
The BitMEX Perpetual Contract Funding Rate is an important way to gauge whether the crowd on one of crypto's top exchanges, is getting overly greedy or fearful.
The metric is defined on our Santiment Academy as a fee paid by one side of the perpetual contract to the other. When the funding rate is positive, Longs pay Shorts. When the funding rate is negative, Shorts pay Longs.
So in essence, as traders, we're looking for high funding rates (greed) to be indicative of a potential upcoming top, and low funding rates to indicate a potential bottom (fear).
Bitcoin
Ethereum
XRP
Litecoin
Chainlink
Bitcoin Cash
Mar 24
March has been a rollercoaster for LINK Marines, as Chainlink's price fluctuated between $26 and $32 after its late February all-time high of ~$36.83. Let's see how some of its key metrics are looking:
Supply Help by Top 10 Exchange and Non-Exchange Addresses
The top 10 non-exchange LINK holders are holding around 2021-high levels, an encouraging sign. In the same respect, the top 10 exchange LINK holders the lowest amount since November, 2017. This lack of tokens available to sell off is also promising.
Weighted Social Sentiment
LINK is not having a major amount of discussion, and this is actually a good thing. Our studies prove that assets are more likely to rise when crowd discussion is dormant.
Daily Active Addresses & Deposits
Address activity has been declining, but at least deposits are also on the decline.
Whale Supply Distribution
The amount of whale holders with at least 10k $LINK continues to decline, a less than promising indication.
Mar 16
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Chainlink have all seen their share of expected growth of addresses interacting on their respective networks. But some have been much more active in contrast to others these past six months.
Below is a chart showing which projects are still showing solid activity through this extended bull run, while others are revealing signs of tapering off in regards to this impactful and predictive metric:
Quick thoughts:
Clearly, Ethereum (in blue) has been showing the most long-term growth among these four juggernaut assets, combined with the least amount of fading.
Bitcoin had its peak right at the beginning of 2021, It hasn't shown a serious decline, but the gradual dropoff back to around 1.10M addresses a day is a concern.
Both Chainlink and Binance Coin have had isolated spikes, with LINK particularly throwing up a caution flag, reverting back to about a 2-month low.
Here's a more zoomed in perspective, for reference:
Mar 11
Our popular 'Weighted Social Sentiment' charts are finally back! They're once again available here for our PRO members to explore how positive vs. negative commentary is looking in real-time for 1,000+ assets.
Weighted social sentiment combines the positive/negative commentary, and multiply by the amount of social volume. Generally prices top out when this gets too high, and bottoms when getting too low.
Bitcoin
BTC's at its most negative sentiment in 5 months, in spite of it pushing toward its recent all-time high.
Ethereum
Ethereum isn't quite at an extremely low negative level like Bitcoin, but it's seeing some similar negative commentary currently.
XRP
XRP has been just slightly negative for upwards of a month now.
Chainlink
Chainlink has quietly become more negative, and is sitting at its lowest level since October.
Polkadot
Polkadot very recently took a bit nosedive after what appears to be a double top.
Cardano
Cardano is finally neutral again after its most euphoric social sentiment in over a year.
Mar 4
Network Realized Profit or Loss (NPL) calculates the overall ROI across all daily transactions for a crypto asset. Generally, spikes are what we look to avoid, as it implies increased chances of local tops and short-term price normalization.
So are we seeing major spikes to be worried about? Here's how NPL currently looks for some of crypto's biggest names:
Bitcoin
Bitcoin hit its lowest NPL of the month yesterday, and is well below its 30d and 200d trendlines. A great sign that an imminent local top isn't approaching.
Ethereum
ETH is more neutral than BTC, sitting right between its 30d and 200d trendlines.
Chainlink
Chainlink is at a low for the month in NPL, and this coincides with a major address activity spike. Could be good here.
Litecoin
LTC's NPL is below the 30d and 200d trendlines and has been sitting encouragingly low for about 2 straight weeks now.
Feb 11
Santiment's NVT Token Circulation model continues to be an effective way to keep tabs on how healthy the circulation rate of tokens are for various crypto assets. As market caps rise, it takes more and more unique tokens moving from address to address to justify future price rises. Check out our write-up on how it works!
Here is a look at where each chart currently stands, with green bars indicating the most bullish signals, and red signaling the most bearish:
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin's NVT chart continues indicating a 'semi-bullish signal for a 5th straight month, with the past two days particularly being very bullish following its new all-time high.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum has outpaced Bitcoin percentage-wise thus far in 2021, and for good reason. February is the 10th straight month of a green bullish signal.
Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink's all-time high was eclipsed yesterday, and its token circulation level is showing as bullish for the 13th straight month.
Feb 8
Token Age Consumed has been a steadfast metric our community has relied upon to spot mid to long-term price direction reversals. This extremely useful Santiment metric reveals the amount of tokens changing addresses, multiplied by the time since they last moved.
This metric is often used to spot local tops, but it can also be used to see signs of dormant tokens moving with the intention of pushing UP prices. Some examples of some recent spikes on this metric are given in the following assets below:
Chainlink ($LINK)
Chainlink's pattern of Friday age consumed spikes continued with its largest occurring a couple days ago. Be careful with one occurring at a local top.
Kyber Network ($KNC)
Kyber Network is seeing the beginnings of a rebound, and some major dormant token movement appears to be supporting it!
0x ($ZRX)
Without an age consumed spike supporting 0x's price rebound, we're a bit pessimistic about a higher high.
Jan 22
References:
yellen - https://www.coindesk.com/janet-yellen-offers-senate-a-more-nuanced-take-on-crypto
double, spend, btc, fud - https://twitter.com/LucasNuzzi/status/1352325295999754241?s=09
grayscale - https://decrypt.co/54981/grayscale-chainlink-trust
