Inflation surges to 40-year high, replaces COVID-19 as top national concern

This sort of titles and news are amongst the most discussed in crypto social media today. Along with Fed, as seen in Social Trends.

This is how "inflation" related messages are dominating in chats last year (pale green BTC price in background):

And this is the same for "Fed":

What can we see here? 'inflation and 'fed' both spiked around BTC bottom in summer 2021.

And here we go now again.

In critical market turning points the topics of 'inflation' and 'fed' impact to the market could often be discussed a lot. Just like that cluster of attention in 21. One then another. Could also be just one, 'inflation' alone for example.

It's a pretty simple idea, the fact of something being actively discussed indicates that something significant can happen with market. In opposite direction to crowd expectations.

Charts used: https://app.santiment.net/s/7VLQI5n8

References:

• Bitcoin ETF - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/15/the-first-bitcoin-futures-etf-in-the-us-is-set-to-begin-trading-next-week.html
• Games, Steam - https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/q9bsqy/ceo_of_epic_games_welcomes_blockchain_games_after/

Putin's story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-14/putin-defends-cryptocurrencies-amid-global-regulation-push

References:

• YouTube and Pomp - https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1447629947284099077
• Bitcoin and Dimon - https://www.reuters.com/business/jpmorgans-dimon-blasts-bitcoin-worthless-due-regulation-2021-10-11/

Bitcoin is crashing (again) as we speak, so let's take a quick look at the latest data, with a full weekly report coming tomorrow!

Seems like weak hands are being shaken out, with Bitcoin's exchange inflow picking up as we speak:

At the same time, Bitcoin's Network Profit/Loss suggests the active Bitcoins today are - on average - being moved at a loss compared to the time acquired, suggesting panic selling may be creeping in among some short-term holders:

On another interesting note, Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV ratio is now the lowest it's been since June, coming very close to a historical support level of -15%:

Full breakdown on the whales, social crowd and other key stakeholders coming in a weekly Pro report tomorrow. Stay safe out there!

More about Salvador and Bitcoin: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/06/business/bitcoin-price-el-salvador-intl-hnk/index.html

References:

• Gold - https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1422558057477849092
• Gensler, SEC - https://www.coindesk.com/sec-boss-gensler-eyeing-robust-regulation-of-crypto-market-report
• Everrise - https://twitter.com/binance/status/1422617640451772418

More on "The B Word" conference: https://fortune.com/2021/07/21/bitcoin-elon-musk-jack-dorsey-cathie-wood/

I recently did a quick market health checkup on Ethereum, which you can check out here. Now, as Bitcoin continues to bore people to tears as it ranges between $31k and $36k for the fourth straight week, let's see what our key metrics are saying:

Bullish Signs

% Supply on Exchanges

Bitcoin's supply on exchanges continues declining, which diminishes the risk of another major selloff.

Weighted Social Sentiment (Twitter)

The crowd sentiment toward Bitcoin, which means buying against the crowd can be profitable.

Neutral Signs

MVRV (30-day)

Average 30-day returns (a useful combo timeframe for both short and mid-term trading) are -4.32%, which essentially means average traders are about even.

Bitmex Funding Rate

The perpetual contract funding rate has come back up to even after the excess shorting that had been frequent.

Bearish Signs

NVT

Bitcoin's circulation vs. its market cap has been... awful so far in July. Be careful with a 5th straight month looking like it will end in the red.