Insights Pulse Insights

Jun 17

Record high Bitcoins at a loss 17-06-22, 21:02

This week Bitcoin network has shown the biggest realized loss according to Network Realized Profit Loss metric.

What is it? NPL metric computes the average profit or loss of all coins that change addresses daily. For each coin that moves onchain, NPL takes the price at which it was last moved and assumes this to be its acquisition price. Once it changes addresses again, NPL assumes the coin was sold.

In fact, the loss we see above is a large value aggregated from a few subsequent days of loss in Bitcoin network. We can see it on a zoomed in chart:

Bitcoins moving on the network were generally moving at a loss. This contributed to what we see on a bigger time line chart.


Feb 28

BTC metrics: double dips as bottom markers 28-02-22, 19:34

The market moved yesterday when there were more heavy sanctions announced against Russia. Heavy tensions very visible. The market moved and both sentiment and funding rate turned negative. Which proved to be enough for bottoming out.

Funding rate:

Weighted Sentiment:

These two metrics alone are able to indicate reaction of market participants after the move took place. So that you could act accordingly.

If the move down pushed sentiment or funding rate deep enough, it could be a chance to buy. And visa versa.

Chart layout:

Jan 13

"Fed" and "Inflation" vs crypto market 13-01-22, 19:30
Inflation surges to 40-year high, replaces COVID-19 as top national concern

This sort of titles and news are amongst the most discussed in crypto social media today. Along with Fed, as seen in Social Trends.

This is how "inflation" related messages are dominating in chats last year (pale green BTC price in background):

And this is the same for "Fed":

What can we see here? 'inflation and 'fed' both spiked around BTC bottom in summer 2021.

And here we go now again.

In critical market turning points the topics of 'inflation' and 'fed' impact to the market could often be discussed a lot. Just like that cluster of attention in 21. One then another. Could also be just one, 'inflation' alone for example.

It's a pretty simple idea, the fact of something being actively discussed indicates that something significant can happen with market. In opposite direction to crowd expectations.

Charts used:


Oct 21

Oct 17

Oct 15

Oct 12

Sep 21

BTC: 'Weak hand' shakeout in progress 21-09-21, 01:44

Bitcoin is crashing (again) as we speak, so let's take a quick look at the latest data, with a full weekly report coming tomorrow!

Seems like weak hands are being shaken out, with Bitcoin's exchange inflow picking up as we speak:

At the same time, Bitcoin's Network Profit/Loss suggests the active Bitcoins today are - on average - being moved at a loss compared to the time acquired, suggesting panic selling may be creeping in among some short-term holders:

On another interesting note, Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV ratio is now the lowest it's been since June, coming very close to a historical support level of -15%:

Full breakdown on the whales, social crowd and other key stakeholders coming in a weekly Pro report tomorrow. Stay safe out there!


Sep 7

Aug 4