Insights Pulse Insights

Nov 2

FOMC as market moves indicator 2-11-22, 14:09

There is an interesting pattern, connecting FOMC news with price action.

It's "FOMC" mentions spikes in crypto social media.

Previous FOMC spikes happened right before market volatility increase:

'FOMC' mentions in crypto social media

And it often was a reversal. We think the history might repeat itself again.

Very often it's a volatility marker or comes close to a bottom.

So probably we might have something similar today, on coming FOMC news.

You might also want to have a look at 'inflation' or 'CPI' mentions chart:

'Inflation' or 'CPI' mentions in crypto social media

And if you follow the link there will be more data showing how different channels talk about these topics (hint: Elon Musk knew what he was buying).


Oct 3

«Cash is the king» 3-10-22, 14:44

«Cash is the king» — this is the narrative we might be looking for at the bottom.
Like a total disbelief in crypto and stocks.

How could we measure it?

Check the "cash" mentions domination in social media.

This is how it looks like currently:

We can see this narrative is getting stronger.

Perhaps making us closer and closer to the bottom.

Would you like to check how this played out on a previous cycle?


Sep 26

"Buy the dip" calls domination 26-09-22, 16:30

One of our favourite sentiment indicators is "Buy the dip" mentions.

Ideally this sort of calls happens quite often in the beginning of downtrend, slowly fading to market bottom. This could be explained by increasing crowd disbelief. Less confidence, less patience. At the point of maximal disbelief, a reversal might happen.

What are we seeing now?

  1. Amount of 'Buy the dip' calls is declining:

2. The same time it's dominance is increasing:

So, how could we read it?

- Overall social activity on crypto market is declining quite fast.

- "Buy the dip" callers becoming more and more dominative in dissolving crowd.

The day they are gone could possibly indicate a bottom. Not there yet.


Aug 30

Shorters gonna short 30-08-22, 12:02

BTC and ETH funding rates are staying low, even despite the latest price recovery.

BTC average funding rate across BitMEX, Binance, DYDX and FTX
ETH average funding rate across BitMEX, Binance, DYDX and FTX

Jun 17

Record high Bitcoins at a loss 17-06-22, 21:02

This week Bitcoin network has shown the biggest realized loss according to Network Realized Profit Loss metric.

What is it? NPL metric computes the average profit or loss of all coins that change addresses daily. For each coin that moves onchain, NPL takes the price at which it was last moved and assumes this to be its acquisition price. Once it changes addresses again, NPL assumes the coin was sold.

In fact, the loss we see above is a large value aggregated from a few subsequent days of loss in Bitcoin network. We can see it on a zoomed in chart:

Bitcoins moving on the network were generally moving at a loss. This contributed to what we see on a bigger time line chart.


Feb 28

BTC metrics: double dips as bottom markers 28-02-22, 19:34

The market moved yesterday when there were more heavy sanctions announced against Russia. Heavy tensions very visible. The market moved and both sentiment and funding rate turned negative. Which proved to be enough for bottoming out.

Funding rate:

Weighted Sentiment:

These two metrics alone are able to indicate reaction of market participants after the move took place. So that you could act accordingly.

If the move down pushed sentiment or funding rate deep enough, it could be a chance to buy. And visa versa.

Chart layout:

Jan 13

"Fed" and "Inflation" vs crypto market 13-01-22, 19:30
Inflation surges to 40-year high, replaces COVID-19 as top national concern

This sort of titles and news are amongst the most discussed in crypto social media today. Along with Fed, as seen in Social Trends.

This is how "inflation" related messages are dominating in chats last year (pale green BTC price in background):

And this is the same for "Fed":

What can we see here? 'inflation and 'fed' both spiked around BTC bottom in summer 2021.

And here we go now again.

In critical market turning points the topics of 'inflation' and 'fed' impact to the market could often be discussed a lot. Just like that cluster of attention in 21. One then another. Could also be just one, 'inflation' alone for example.

It's a pretty simple idea, the fact of something being actively discussed indicates that something significant can happen with market. In opposite direction to crowd expectations.

Charts used:


Oct 21

Oct 17

Oct 15