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Introduction

As the year draws to a close, Santiment's experts, Brian Quinlivan and Maksim Balashevich, provide a timely analysis of the crypto market's current state. They highlight the typical high volatility seen during the holiday season, driven by reduced liquidity and fewer participants. This period presents unique opportunities for active traders to capitalize on market movements. Reflecting on past trends, Maksim notes that while 2023 was a rebound year, 2024 has been exceptional, echoing the bull markets of 2017 and 2021.

Review of Crypto Performance in 2024 vs Previous Years

The discussion moves to a review of 2024's crypto performance compared to previous years. Maksim emphasizes that 2024 has been one of the best years for crypto, with significant gains reminiscent of the historic bull runs in 2017 and 2021. He notes that while 2023 offered some recovery from the challenges of 2022, it pales in comparison to the robust growth seen this year. This analysis sets the stage for understanding the current market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Weekly Price Analysis

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Top Movers: Brian provides a detailed weekly price analysis, noting modest losses for Bitcoin and Ethereum, down 3.2% and 2.3%, respectively. He highlights the standout performance of Bitget's token, which dominated price action due to a merger. Other notable movers include Hyper Liquid, which experienced a retracement after a strong previous week, and Aptos, which saw a significant drop. Despite these fluctuations, some assets like Virtual and OKB posted gains, showcasing the diverse market activity.

Market Sentiment Analysis and Social Volume Drop

The conversation shifts to market sentiment, where Brian observes a sharp decline in social volume. This drop is attributed to the holiday season and a general market fatigue. He notes that discussions about Bitcoin reaching $60-65K have resurfaced, although the dominant sentiment remains uncertain. This indecision is mirrored in the trading volume, which has seen a 64% decrease compared to the previous week. Brian explains that market movements often go against the crowd's expectations, making it crucial to monitor social sentiment closely.

Round Numbers Analysis and Price Expectations

Brian introduces a round numbers analysis to gauge price expectations. By examining mentions of Bitcoin prices between 101K to 120K and 70K to 90K, he identifies potential market tops and bottoms. High mentions of optimistic price targets often precede market tops, while pessimistic mentions suggest potential bottoms. This analysis provides valuable insights into crowd psychology and its impact on market movements, highlighting the importance of understanding sentiment-driven price expectations.

Mean Dollar Invested Age Analysis

The discussion delves into the mean dollar invested age, a key metric indicating the average age of Bitcoins in wallets. Brian notes a downward trend, suggesting that dormant coins are re-entering circulation. This movement is a positive sign, as it typically precedes bull markets by increasing liquidity and trading activity. Historical data from 2017 and recent trends reinforce the significance of this metric in predicting market behavior and potential price surges.

Whale and Small Wallet Behavior Trends

Brian and Maksim explore the behavior of different wallet sizes, revealing contrasting trends. While smaller wallets have been decreasing since the bull market began, larger wallets holding 10+ BTC continue to accumulate. This accumulation by whales and sharks indicates long-term confidence and strategic positioning. The experts emphasize the importance of monitoring these trends, as they provide insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.

Market Funding Rates and Exchange Activities

The analysis turns to market funding rates and exchange activities, with Brian noting a neutral stance among traders. Both BitMEX and Binance show flat funding rates, indicating a wait-and-see approach. This neutrality suggests that traders are uncertain about the market's direction, reflecting broader indecision. The experts highlight the significance of funding rates as indicators of market sentiment and potential price movements, urging investors to remain vigilant.

Stable Coin Holder Analysis

Maksim and Brian discuss the behavior of stablecoin holders, particularly those with 10K to 100K holdings. These holders often deploy their "dry powder" during market dips, influencing price dynamics. The experts note a recent increase in stablecoin balances, suggesting caution among holders. This behavior aligns with broader market indecision, as investors await clearer signals before making significant moves. Understanding stablecoin holder behavior is crucial for anticipating market trends and potential buying opportunities.

Social Sentiment and Top 110k Bitcoin Price Mentions

Brian examines social sentiment and the frequency of Bitcoin price mentions at 110K. He notes that high mentions of optimistic price targets often coincide with market tops, as seen in previous instances. This pattern underscores the importance of monitoring social sentiment as an indicator of market psychology. The experts caution against excessive optimism, advising investors to remain grounded and consider broader market dynamics when evaluating potential price movements.

Deep Chainlink Analysis

The conversation shifts to a deep analysis of Chainlink, a standout altcoin with increased network activity. Despite a recent drop in transaction volume, Chainlink's mean dollar invested age is decreasing, signaling a positive long-term outlook. The experts highlight the fluctuating supply on exchanges, suggesting strategic movements within Chainlink's economy. Overall, the altcoin market remains dynamic, with various assets experiencing unique trends that warrant close attention.

DeFi Liquidations Analysis and Bottom Signals

Maksim introduces an analysis of DeFi liquidations as a potential bottom signal. He explains that clusters of liquidations often precede market recoveries, as they indicate a clearing of leveraged positions. Historical data supports this view, with significant liquidations aligning with market bottoms. The experts emphasize the importance of monitoring DeFi liquidations as part of a comprehensive market analysis, providing valuable insights into potential buying opportunities.

Year-End Market Outlook

As the year concludes, Brian and Maksim offer a market outlook and trading strategy. They acknowledge the current neutral territory, characterized by indecision and analysis paralysis. While volatility is expected to persist, the experts advise caution and patience. They encourage investors to leverage Santiment's data-driven tools and insights to navigate the complexities of the crypto market. By staying informed and strategic, investors can position themselves for success in the dynamic landscape of 2025.

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