Who could have bought MATIC before the pump

Assets covered: Polygon (MATIC)

Metrics used: Social volume, Exchange Inflow, Daily Active Deposits, Network Profit Loss, Age Consumed, Whale transactions count, Holders Distribution, MVRV

MATIC is one of the best performing ERC20 coins of Monday, +40% in day! And it is being talked about quite a bit, as social volume says

Social volume

We do see a spike in MATIC mentions in crypto social media. More people are talking now about MATIC. Not as much as on previous tops, but still. This sort of volume is a nice 'fuel' for pumps.

Exchange Inflow

We do have a slight uptick in exchange inflow but not as high as we would expected to be on a pump. Especially when you see MATIC's previous spikes in EI. It relatively consistently coincides with local tops. Especially on these massive price upticks. Although it's just Sunday and Monday and usually there's a drop in activity over the weekend.

Daily Active Deposits

We do also see a spike in deposits count suggesting rising MATIC sell side pressure.

Network Profit Loss

We're not seeing big spikes in NPL just yet. Which we did see on several occasions previously before the dips. So long term MATIC holders aren't selling yet. It seems like that the today's inflow is mostly driven by new money. Because if we look at Age Consumed...

Age Consumed

If we look at Age Consumed we can see that not a lot of old coins are moving, no spikes on the right. It proves that latest exchange inflow is mostly driven by new money.

Whale transactions count

Nothing too out of the ordinary. This seems fairly inconsistent and volatile. We have a study proving whale transactions spikes come usually on a price top. At the moment we're not seeing it, may be the last day data simply not completely counted yet.

Holders distribution

1. A group of MATIC holders from 1m to 10m looks interesting. We've got a relatively high decline in the balance of these addresses. Not a negligible drop for sure. There has also been sort of a buying the dip. Could be pre-pump positioning. Last time we saw this group in particular make massive moves it was before the march 12 crash.

Who could have bought the dip? Whales probably, as the chart below suggests.

It takes the same tier of holders and only show amount of "Whale" holders within the tier. It has been increasing lately.

1. The same time 100k-1m group of MATIC holders seems to be more organic in terms of accumulating and dumping right at the top:

1. Has been declining in balance for much of the second half of the April and now we're starting to it rise again. It has probably not yet taken into account the pump yet, so need to see what it shows soon.

MVRV

We are approaching previously dangerous levels but we are not near historical highs. That said MATIC is probably going in a dangerous direction.

Take care.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.