The altseason. Are we anywhere close to it?

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Garry Kabankin
Oct 1, 2020

One tweet caught our attention today:

This is alt szn

Well, is it?


We can see that there are enough altcoin bagholders like Alameda who want to pump their bags.


Some believe the altseason can really happen. Some will appreciate it, because perhaps they have bags too. Some others are more reluctant. Still there are attempts to pump the altbags.


Meanwhile we believe there is fundamental metric that could possibly confirm the altcoin season quite early.


This is DEX trading volumes.


Lets take Uniswap:

Source: uniswap.info

Notice that its volume following a trend line? Once the trendline is broken - it's an early sign altseason is coming back. We would wait for it. That will be the confirmation.


Another example is Kyber:

Source: Kyber Network Tracker

Looks like a similar to Uniswap volume picture. We think we need to close a few days above $10M daily on Kyber. It's quite close. But it's nothing before.


We are using Kyber and Uniswap volumes because it does reflect the greed or interest. DEX volumes are kind of a proxy of people gambling. More people trading means the crowd gets excited. In the middle of the cycle people will be talking about it everywhere again.


But we will be able to identify much earlier.


Once we see the break of the downtrend resistance on Uniswap or come back above 10M in Kyber - these two things could indicate the beginning. Before this altseason is just a joke.


Data we are seeing right now doesn't let us announce or confirm the altseason. Unless there is an accumulation in whales but we don't see it.


There is one more thing to indicate the bottom.


When people will be posting negative tweets like "Alameda! I lost millions because of you!"

Then this is the bottom.


Or some bad news appear, fear - this is great for the bottom. Especially if the crowd starts using it as the explanation for the dump and 'more to come'.


Voila. We have Kucoin hack. We have BitMEX CTO arrested. People also afraid that other exchanges will suffer the BitMEX fate.

Sea of red:

And this:

Isn't it fear?


Then may be we are getting closer.


Take care.

ALTS
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Garry Kabankin
Oct 1, 2020

Thanks for reading!

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