MATIC is ranging. For how long?

Assets covered: Polygon (MATIC)

Metrics used: MVRV, Development Activity, Active Addresses, Network Profit Loss, Exchange Inflow, Daily Active Addresses, Dormant Circulation, Age Consumed, Whale Transactions Count, Holders Distribution

MATIC has been in the middle of the road for a while now. No dumps, no pumps. It has also been trending on Coingecko on Thursday. Why? And where MATIC goes next? Let's see.

Bearish signs


30d MVRV at +18% is probably not great, still a bit overvalued:

Source: Sanbase

365d MVRV, for long term holders, is around +270%:

Source: Sanbase

Overall MATIC's MVRV is a problem and it's going to remain a problem for a while. No matter what happens, further correction is needed until we move into the undervalued territory.

Neutral signs

1. Development activity

Still quite strong:

Source: Sanbase

Strong, but not the strongest in L2 sector. #9 on the moment on the screener. Not the most active developing project according to GitHub, but staying up there as far as competitors are concerned.

2. Active Addresses

Starting to range. Still massive. Almost 9K addresses:

Source: Sanbase

MATIC is easily one of the top coins on Ethereum by activity.

3. Network Profit Loss

A few profit taking spikes but we think that's fine:

Source: Sanbase

Bullish signs

Exchange Inflow and Daily Active Deposits

Both are declining. This is not bad. Sure they actually stay relatively stable for a couple of days. And EI is slightly picking up, but it's not too crazy:

Source: Sanbase

There doesn't seem to be a massive amount of new sell side pressure. Though it's strange how MATIC price is plotting an almost straight line for days. It's not usual for MATIC at all.

Dormant Circulation and Age Consumed

It seems to be there was a spike in AC around the bottom:

Source: Sanbase

This has been a sort of a capitulation event for long term holders and now most of MATIC's long term holders (DC 365, 180, 2y) are very much continuing to hodl:

Source: Sanbase

It's another nice sign for MATIC.

Whale Transactions Count

Is declining:

Source: Sanbase

If we take a look, previously WTC have mirrored tops for MATIC. Overall we think this is a promising decline. Based on some of our backtests this also seems to be the case that when you see spikes in whale transfers during a rally it usually indicates a risk of a correction. A decline could mean a renewed confidence by MATIC whales.

Holders Distribution by Balance of Addresses

MATIC whales owning from 100K to 1M tokens have been accumulating. Seemingly been dumping for a while into the rally. And now starting to buy this dip:

Source: Sanbase

MATIC whales owning from 1M to 10M tokens has slightly dropped. Which is not a huge red flag. Cause previously they haven't been noticed in coinciding with price action:

Source: Sanbase

Overall, there are more bullish signs than bearish at the moment. Things to watch:

  • Active Addresses
  • Whale Transactions Count
  • Whales behaviour (Holders Distribution)


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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