ARPA. Bottom found?

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Garry Kabankin
Feb 26, 2020

This insight is not related to emerging assets, coronavirus and gold.

Arpa appeared on my radar flashing with news about burning 10M tokens.


ARPA is an ERC-20 token standing for a privacy-preserving computation network.

Arpa Chain is ranked #400 with trading volume $2.8M mostly on Binance.


The interesting thing here for a person looking for an entry point is recent FUD around project. Can be seen on twitter:

A trader accumulated $1.3M worth of ARPA on Binance? 10% of total supply? Ok, it doesn't really matter. We've got FUD here, that's why it's interesting to find onchain price bottom markers.


1. This is ARPA's price and that manipulation on it:

2. Top holders bags trend (blue):

Accumulation spotted. Top 10 ARPA holders now own 83.7% of supply. Started with 79.7% ten days ago. Bullish.


3. Exchange flow balance:

This recent spike of ARPA's inflow to exchanges is dangerous. There's now power to create additional selling pressure pushing price down. Bearish.


By the way Santiment Discord users might have been alerted about this in free "exchanges-inflow-signals" channel:

4. Total supply on exchanges:

Keeps growing and it feels dangerous.


5. Shifting away from exchanges. Percent of ARPA supply of non-exchange whales:

A smart drop is seen exactly on top. Now they started to accumulate ARPA again. Bullish.


6. Withdrawals from exchanges:

Amount of withdrawal transactions almost doubled related to last months. Bullish.


7. Deposits to exchanges:

An opposite picture here, almost no deposits to exchanges lately. Just for comparizon, wouldn't rely on it. 1-2 active deposits per day is too small amount.


8. MVRV:

Oh what a beauty here! MVRV showing peak negative values on all time ranges! Perfectly bullish.


9. MVRV Long/Short difference:

This supplementary bottom indicator supports MVRV greatly. For some coins bullish territory begins when MVRV L/S crosses zero line. This metric has never been so close to zero for ARPA. Bullish.


10. Daily Active Addresses:

Plotting higher highs and higher lows? Bullish. Probably. It depends on next days DAA amounts.


Summary.


FUD is usually a nice entry point for a coin.


ARPA shows enough bottom markers today and some bearish warnings at the same time. Looks positive but should be taken with container of salt.


Will MVRV metric show it's power for ARPA as it has proven for many others? I don't know.


Arpa Chain is specific asset far outside from well known high volume tokens and is followed by relatively low social volume.


Appreciate your own research and thoughts.


Thanks for reading.



ARPA
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Garry Kabankin
Feb 26, 2020

Thanks for reading!

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