Ye mighty frok

PEPE is all over crypto social media right now. Seems like all the stars have finally aligned, and everything works out just perfectly for it to pull what DOGE did in 2021:

  • good macro backdrop - the entire market is up strongly
  • ETH ripping especially hard on the ETF news, taking the mindshare away from SOL, and PEPE being the leading ETH meme/beta/proxy/whatever else
  • memecoins in general are hot, being an alternative for people to escape the rigged VC-dominated system of low-float-high-FDV-infinite-unlock-dump-on-you coins.

So really, why shouldn't it just go up 10x from here?

Let's examine how are things looking beyond the facade. For that I'll put side by side metrics for DOGE during its 2021 run: first kind of 0-1 jump, cool-off period and then the ultimate top, with metrics for PEPE during its current run: 0-1 jump would be the Binance listing, cool-off period and the recent run-up ( and we shall see whether it's the ultimate top).

Volume is not looking too bad right now for PEPE - there isn't such a clear divergence with price like for DOGE in April-May 2021, but it's not super strong either.

Network activity shows clear divergence. There's much less onchain activity happening compared to the initial growth phase, and even comparing first leg of the big run-up to the second one you can clearly see the diminishing activity.

Same thing for MVRVs. Divergence between price and MVRV indicates traders' rising cost basis (buying at the highs) which never ends well.

Unfortunately, the initial growth phase for PEPE was overlapping with Twitter's data issues so I had to cut it out, but even looking at the recent run, the divergence is clear. Rapidly rising social sentiment coupled with declining social volume indicates complacency. People expect huge gains, but in reality the inflow of fresh participants is stalling.

In conclusion, I'm very skeptical on PEPE's prospects at this point.

Can it go up 10x from here? Absolutely not IMO.

Can it go up 2x? Extremely unlikely.

Best case scenario is maybe it squeezes another 10-20% up, but even that would be quite a surprise, considering the underlying fundamemetals.

All of the above is written solely for comedic purposes and I'm not responsible for anyone's bad decisions (for the good ones I'll gladly take full credit tho).

If you want to prove that you are a better trader than me in the most indisputable way, while also farming for a potential future a*****p, go to make some calls on PEPE. Mine is right there

Thanks for reading!

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