XRP Whale behavior

Today, I will look at 2 groups of whales that I believe play crucial role in the price action of XRP since a few years back. The 2 groups are those holding between 1M-10M XRP and those holding 10M-100M XRP. Let's label them as TRADERS and HOLDERS respectively, in this narrative exploring the behaviors of wealthy owners.

TRADERS Analysis:

• XRP/USDT Chart:

Between 2021 and 2023, there was a pattern in the XRP price chart that caught the attention of TRADERS. They thought the chances were good that the price would go up.

Here below you can see their activity during the same time.

TRADERS accumulated an additional 4 billion XRP in the last 3 months as the massive triangle formation approached its end. This pattern drew attention from the general crowd, fostering bullish sentiment. However, widespread recognition by the masses often hints at potential downsides.

Now, let's take a closer look at the Weighted Sentiment from the past year leading to this accumulation:

Surprise, surprise, when the herd noticed, the price didn't increase! This demonstrates the risk management of this specific group. As you can see below, there's a higher risk this time that the price might fall below the trend line.

So, what did TRADERS do?

So, these TRADERS started selling their XRP, which we could tell because they had less XRP in the 1M-10M addresses. Oddly, while they were selling, the price unexpectedly went up. This weird situation suggests that besides the TRADERS selling, something else was affecting the price.

It seems, TRADERS weren't willing to invest $50 in a Sanbase Pro subscription due to their greed.

The amount of coins moving around in the last 30 days was going up. This Circulation 30D metric tracks how much of the currency has been moving in the last 30 days. Clearly, someone was buying a lot! But who could it be? This leads us to the next big investor group, known as:

HOLDERS Analysis:

This group has between 10 million and 100 million XRP. They're super rich, maybe even own a few private jets. They're not like regular folks who hope a small investment will make them rich. When these big shots decide something, they're thinking long-term, and what they do can really shake up the market.

Now, about these HOLDERS: while TRADERS were selling, these big holders were busy buying! Here's how we know:

The red line represents the HOLDERS. See how they moved similarly and how their actions made the price go up.

In history, we've seen three things happen before a really big price jump:

• TRADERS holding less XRP
• Lots more XRP moving around
• TRADERS being more careful with their risks (maybe because they're impatient?)

Here's a chart showing all these times, marked with rocket emojis.

Current Situation:

Right now, both TRADERS and HOLDERS are doing what they usually do: TRADERS are selling while HOLDERS are buying. This is what we were expecting to happen, but there's no unusual increase in the amount of XRP moving around for 30 days, which usually signals a big price increase.

Just to let you know, XRP makes up 20% of my investments, but I'm thinking of selling some to invest in other coins I like before coming back once Circulation 30d is on the rise. If you want more Insights like this, drop a Follow!

If you have an ERC-20 project you would like me to analyze, please leave a comment below!

Prost!