why 11/Apr/22 is important for BTC?
Halving is one the most important economic events in Bitcoin life cycles which Approximately happens every 4 years. based on the history of the price chart we can clearly see that Halvings cut the supply of Bitcoin in half and that caused a pump in the price. I consider each Halving to have THREE parts.
1st The Beginning: it is when the Halving happens in the network. (e.g 11/Jul/16 or 4/May/20)
usually the price starts to rise when the supply of BTC divides by two.
2nd The Climax: It happens when the price forms a ATH and surprisingly in the two recent cycles it took 518 days for the price to reach its ATH (climax1 & climax2)
3rd the Mid-Halving correction: based on the previous cycle, in the same timeline, BTC price was struggling with an important resistance & it wasn't successful in breaking the so called resistance level which caused a continuation to a long lasting bear market. what about now? the important resistance on the way is the $50K. the 11/Apr/22 is the Mid-Halving correction of the on going cycle and if the price would make it to stable itself above this level, then we can give more credit to the thesis that says: "this cycle is different than the others." lets check some on-chain metrics to compare the two recent Mid-Halving correction.
in Jul 2018 we had about 600K daily active addresses and now we have almost 900K.
the network activity reduced ,but yet it is much higher than the previous mid-halving. this can be sign of more usage through the network in comparison to 2018.
in Jul 2018, the whales were indecisive and after a short period of time the holders with balance 100-1,000 BTC started to sell their bitcoins while the wealthier ones were the buyers. this tier of investors(1,000-10,000 BTC) already started buying and expanding their bitcoins when we are just a week away from the Mid-Halving correction.
in my opinion history won't happen exactly in the same way that happened before. in this cycle, the investors are behaving differently, so the result can be something different and this bear market that we are experiencing right now is not going to be like the previous one. this matter doesn't necessarily means that we are going to the moon, but it means that the BTC price trend is going to be mature, because the investors are getting mature.
Thanks for reading!
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