Where are we going next?

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Oct 29, 2021

Quick Debrief using a few key metrics.

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Bullish Indications

  • Active addreses 24h (BTC) >1m Addreses based on 7D moving avg
  • 30D MVRV down to below 5% level = ST holders potential buy pressure
  • Social Metrics all dropped as spotlight was lit on dog coins and ETH breakout (theorizing why metrics are lower on BTC); however this is encouraging for BTC
  • Network Realized Profit/Loss is low = Signifying cohorts still in profit zone but the realized profit of these investors may signify potential buy pressure
  • Supply on exchanges dropping

Bearish Indications

  • Inflows > Outflows currently signifying a bit of a bearish ST signal
  • Circulation (1d (BTC) Ma(7) is currently dipping a bit which is normal but ST could be due to the spotlight on other coins (theorizing) Would love more perspective on this insight
  • 365D MVRV is at a relative level, especially when comparing it to the the profits of cohorts in the last leg of the bullrun. These LT investors usually hold on for long periods of time and the 365D MVRV could definitely run a lot further. However, LT holders are showing signs of selling, and this is completely normal as these large cohorts buy into STR and sell into WEAKness = This is what happens as market peaks every cycle.
  • Funding rate a bit high. Signifying future based open contracts are quite high. If the funding rate stays high and the price of BTC remains stable, then a flush is definitely possible. We already witnessed this in the last week, I demonstrated this briefly in my last post.
  • Other than that, one of the most ST bearish indicators for me is the Retail holders (100-1k addresses) = Dipping & Institutional addresses showing signs of sell off.

Macro: Long way to go, on the Macro scale we look bullish

Mirco: ST price, BTC is always unknown but we can take these key metrics and use this significant data to determine our next strategic investing motive.

I hope this helps I would love critical opinion of my debriefing and see what other people see in the market. Its great to gather confluence in the market! Let me know what you think down below! Happy trading everyone!

Check out my feed on twitter. Daily__Dopamine

Best Regards,

Patrick Rychter

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Oct 29, 2021

Thanks for reading!

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Assets from this insight

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