UNI - Now that V3 information is out...

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Sanfam
Mar 24, 2021

Assets covered: UNI

Metrics used: Price, Coin supply on exchanges, Supply distribution


Summary:

So after months of teasing, Uniswap finally announced their V3 details....


Let's take a quick at where we are at now.


Price

In a previous post, we talked about how the market was being teased and running with speculative juice before the imminent announcement.


Lo and behold, the Uniswap team did not fail with their tease. Let's zoom in on how price react with each tease over the past week, which then resulted in the classic "buy the rumour, sell the news"

UNI price action - Sanbase

1. Hayden prompting that release details will be out within the week.

2. Uniswap teasing promo video

3. Release of Uniswap V3 details


All the teasing eventually led the price to make a new high of $36.29 USD. It then retraced back to $30 USD levels once the announcement came out - A classic "Buy the rumour, sell the news" event.


Now that news of V3 is out, it should be time for consolidation in the short-term before market starts "buying the rumour" leading to the V3 mainnet launch on 5th May.


UNI support zones - Sanbase

So far, UNI's price is still following very closely to what BTC is doing. If BTC pumps/dumps, it tends to do so as well.


It has held the $30 USD support for now but if things turn ugly for BTC, it is likely we'll lose it and trend down where the next major support would be in the $20 USD zone.


Which isn't a bad thing, as it allows for price to consolidate before the next move.



Uniswap V3 - Things to note



Supply on Exchanges and Daily Active Deposits

UNI Supply on Exchanges and Daily Active Deposits - Sanbase

UNI's Supply on exchanges started to creep up since March 7th and is still trending upwards for now with increasing Daily Active Deposits (DAD), which may signal that retail is joining in the sell pressure (due to more DADs).


In the short-term, a healthy correction is pretty normal with the sell pressure we are seeing now.



UNI supply distribution

UNI supply distribution - Sanbase

1 to 1,000 coins (Retail) - Consistent growth regardless of price action so far.


1,000 to 10,000 (Larger investors) - Been exiting since 31st Jan, likely because these holders accumulated from Q3 2020 by looking at the growth of this cohort back then. That said, seems like a new group of holders have entered this cohort with the recent spike.


10,000 to 10,000,000 (Whales) - Huge drop on March 7th as price rallied, suggesting that whales took the chance to offload. However, this was quickly exchanged with new holders.


Overall, it appears that distribution is occurring, from old holders to the new ones. This should then set a floor for UNI, which is healthy going forward as we head into the mainnet launch on May 5th.



Going forward

Classic "Buy the rumour, sell the news" played out accordingly. UNI appears to be consolidating and finding support levels.


Distribution was occurring since Q1 2021, with old holders exchanging hands with new ones, helping to establish new support levels as price went on.


Uniswap has now provided the market with yet another speculative event, the mainnet launch on 5th May and Optimism by mid May. Will we see yet another "Buy the rumour, sell the news"?


Likely but also do note that we may find ourselves consolidating before moving, afterall, we just had the "sell the news" moment.

UNIDEFI
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Sanfam
Mar 24, 2021

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