RLC getting riskier as it heads towards V4 release

While most altcoins out there have been bleeding out this quarter so far, there have been a number of outliers. And one of them is $RLC.

Having bottomed out in late September, it began a rally that saw the price go from $0.108975 USD to a top of $0.824953 USD. That's a nice 7.5x there!

Pretty impressive given the current market conditions.

Each leg up had decent trading volume accompanying but do note that each leg up is seeing less volume. This price/vol divergence may indicate less interest from buyers as price continues upwards. Eventually sellers may take control as buyers are exhausted.

Crowd's reaction

• Lets hope rlc dont dump after v4
• rlc pullin fuckin 5x
• Rlc chad coin
  how much rlc do you need for staking and how much can you earn guys?
• There's no substitute for greed..look at lend.. absolute shitcoin.. pulled almost 10x..RLC doing same..DOCK gonna do it..they have mcap of less than 5 mil.. tron is at 1bil.

It appears that the crowd is looking forward to the much anticipated release of V4 in December. This would coincide pretty well with the classic crypto logic of "Buy the rumour, sell the news".

• Price rally before release - CHECKED
• Dump on / week before release - TBC

The risk is definitely getting higher for anyone looking to speculate now.

How's V4 coming along?

Interestingly, iExec's dev activity hasn't been as active as seen in August - September. Perhaps they might have some private repos which are not made public.

In any case, the team have provided a public roadmap if you are interested to keep track.

Exchange flow behavior

Daily active withdrawals are increasing with every leg up and given the withdrawal volumes, it suggests that it's probably retail folks.

There is however an outlier when examining the withdrawal volumes. Looks like a whale withdrew around 30th Oct.

Which caused a sharp drop in the token supply on exchanges.

Whale watching

So who was behind that withdrawal?

Well, the top transactions in the past 30D reveal that a single address - 0x753af971b906bb6dc7bdff46db3812a809b370cb is responsible for a withdrawal of 1.9M RLC.

It then sends considerable amounts of RLC (above 100k RLC) to Upbit twice over different weeks. Perhaps it's a way of drip offloading?

If you wish to keep track of this address, here's a generated signal that will alert you whenever the balance drops by 100k RLC.

So what about the rest of the whales?

Majority of top holders remain idle for the past 14 days. Only 2 withdrew from their address and no one is accumulating any more.

As we enter into December, it's worth keeping an eye on the top holders and what they are doing then.