Ripple whales could have been prepared for the pump

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Santrends
Feb 1, 2021

Assets covered: Ripple (XRP)

Metrics used: Holders Distribution, Mean Coin Age, Mean Dollar Invested Age, Network Profit Loss, Spent Coin Cost, Age Consumed and Transaction Volume.



Ripple showed biggest single-day gain in 3 years and then dumped heavily. Oh what a swings.

There are rumours that the pump has been orchestrated by "Buy & Hold XRP" telegram group. Who knows, they covered up with a special statement already:

What could immutable onchain data show us?


Looks like the most interesting things can be seen on holders distribution charts.



Holders Distribution Combined Balance


The only group increasing their holdings is the last, the biggest one, probably exchanges:

Source: Sanbase



Holders Distribution

It's showing that the amount of biggest XRP wallets has been on a simultaneous decline while Ripple surged:

Source: Sanbase

Did they know something?



Mean Coin Age + Mean Dollar Invested Age


Source: Sanbase

Oh, we have a decline here. It means redistribution taking place in XRP last days. From whales to retail perhaps. Very toppish and very pumpish.



Network Profit Loss

Source: Sanbase

We're can see two major profit taking events somewhere in the middle of the pump. Then there were few smaller ones, risky guys held to the very top. And a few small loss taking events after the dump. More XRP made profits for their owners then left in loss. A bit risky to buy here from this point of view. Nice to see more loss at the bottom.



Spent Coin Cost

Source: Sanbase

This metric explains why there's relatively low loss on this dump. The biggest part of XRP tokens moved today (sold) were obtained below 0.39 USD. It's below or somewhere near Ripple at this bottom.


What else do we see at this bottom?


Age Consumed and Transaction Volume

Source: Sanbase
Source: Sanbase

Spikes in both indicate that season traders and long term holders recognized the move and took their chance to offload XRP bags.



So what do we have.


1. A lot of (Transaction Volume) old XRP coins (Age Consumed) were probably sold in relatively small profit (Spent Coin Cost and Network Profit Loss).

2. Redistribution probably finished (need to check Mean Age the next day).

3. Ripple responded to SEC lawsuit (https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/37387/ripple-formally-responds-to-sec-lawsuit)


What we want to see is:

  1. 1. More loss on Network Profit Loss chart
  2. 2. Decreasing sell pressure (Exchange Inflow)
  3. 3. XRP disappearing from social chatter (no XRP mentions in top-10 Santrends)


Then we could say there's relatively low risk in Ripple.


ā€”

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.


XRP
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Santrends
Feb 1, 2021

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