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Introduction

In a recent live stream, Santiment's founder, Maksim Balashevich, and Director of Marketing, Brian provided a detailed look at the crypto market's performance in the first ten days of 2025. They explored the market's initial rebound, subsequent pullback, and the underlying factors influencing these movements. This insigts post breaks down their key insights, offering a data-driven perspective on the forces shaping the crypto landscape, from the shift towards blue-chip assets to the impact of economic factors and social media sentiment. Get ready to uncover the latest trends and learn how to navigate the market with Santiment's powerful tools.

Market Overview and Early 2025 Performance

Brian kicked off the stream by noting the market's strong start to 2025, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $102,000. However, this rally quickly faded, with Bitcoin settling around $93,800, down 3.2% for the week. Ethereum also experienced a significant drop, down 8%, finding support at $3,000. Brian highlighted a trend where smaller altcoins are experiencing larger losses, a "regression to the mean" as the market corrects. This has led to a noticeable shift towards Bitcoin and blue-chip assets, perceived as safer havens. He also mentioned a few exceptions, like Bitcat and Swe, which have seen gains due to specific project developments.

Decoupling and Interesting Stories

Maksim highlighted some interesting stories beyond the general market trend. He noted that Sui has been dominant in crypto-related channels, with increased mentions of Aave and Chainlink, indicating positive expectations. He cautioned that such positive sentiment often appears around market tops. Interestingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum weren't the focus of this positive chatter, with Ethereum being the subject of jokes about not reaching $4,000 again. Maksim emphasized the need for a narrative to rationalize the current decline, suggesting that the release of non-farm payroll data could be a catalyst. He's waiting for major narratives to solidify expectations of lower prices, which could signal a potential bottom.

Economic Factors and the "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" Effect

Brian discussed the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, particularly in relation to the US political landscape. The anticipation of Trump's election fueled a significant market rise in late 2024, with Bitcoin reaching over $108,000. However, with his inauguration approaching, Brian cautioned against expecting another huge bounce, as the market reaction has already occurred. He noted that the price action has been sideways since mid-December, suggesting that the initial euphoria has subsided.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 Correlation

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was another key topic. Brian showed how closely these two markets have been fluctuating since mid-November, moving up and down together. He also noted that the stock market was down yesterday in recognition of Jimmy Carter's death, and that both stock and crypto markets are down today. He emphasized the importance of watching both US and world markets for signs of renewed momentum.

Whale Behavior Analysis

Brian and Maksim analyzed whale behavior, noting that the peak of accumulation by 10+ BTC wallets occurred around December 27th. Between December 27th and 31st, these wallets collectively dropped 879 Bitcoin, a small but notable shift after a period of heavy accumulation. While they are still climbing, the pace is not as aggressive as during the bull run.

Market Bottom Indicators: Realized Profit/Loss

Maksim discussed the importance of realized profit/loss as a bottom indicator. He explained that significant red spikes on the chart, indicating when people are taking profits, are a sign of worry and concern, which can signal a bottom. He pointed out a divergence on the chart shortly before the new year, where people took less and less profits until a temporary bottom was hit. Brian added that as long as realized profits are increasing, it's a good sign of a bull cycle, but a lack of realized profits compared to price increases is a warning sign of a potential top.

Mean Dollar Invested Age

Brian then discussed the mean dollar invested age, a longer-term indicator. He explained that a decline in this metric, indicating that the average coins on the network are getting younger, is a good sign of a bull cycle. He noted that Bitcoin's mean dollar invested age dropped from 525 to 418 days during the recent rally, indicating that older wallets were moving their coins. He also pointed out that even after the price drop, the mean dollar invested age continues to decline, which is encouraging for the long term.

Supply on Exchanges

Brian highlighted the importance of supply on exchanges. He noted that the percentage of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased from 9.94% in late July to 7.69%, which is theoretically good as it reduces the risk of a future sell-off. Conversely, the supply of Tether on exchanges has increased from 42.36% on November 5th to 53.87%, indicating more dry powder for potential purchases.

Social Sentiment Analysis

Brian presented a chart of positive versus negative sentiment across social media. He explained that high spikes indicate fomo, while low spikes indicate fud. He noted that high positive sentiment often precedes market tops, and that the current sentiment is rather neutral. He also pointed out that the average sentiment has been below average for most of 2025, suggesting a potential for a rise without much resistance. He then discussed MVRV, noting that the 30-day MVRV is currently negative, indicating a decreased risk for buying in.

Liquidation Analysis

Maksim emphasized that the definition of "high" and "low" for the MVRV indicator is subjective and should be used in combination with other indicators. He then discussed liquidation charts, highlighting the cycles of overheating and cooling down based on lending and borrowing rates on Aave and Compound. He explained that high rates for stables indicate a high-risk area, while bottoms are formed when rates return to normal. He also noted that liquidations are a sign of real pain in the market, which is necessary for a true bottom. He pointed out that there haven't been any big liquidations since December 20th.

Current Trending Topics

Brian reviewed the trending topics on social media, noting that the California fires are the number one topic, followed by market insight and unemployment. He also discussed the job market, noting a lower unemployment rate of 4.1%, which could influence Fed decisions. He also mentioned the trending token "Pippin," which has seen a significant price increase after being listed on Binance. He noted that the social volume for Pippin has exploded, but is now starting to come down, suggesting a potential retrace.

SOL Analysis

Brian discussed Solana, noting that its social volume spiked on November 21st, and the price has since dropped 27%. However, Solana's social dominance is increasing, which Maksim noted is not necessarily a good sign, as it could indicate people trying to convince themselves that Solana will do well. Brian also mentioned that much of the discussion around Solana is related to the meme coins popping up on its network.

Top 6 Market Cap Analysis

Brian reviewed the sentiment of the top 6 market cap assets. He noted that Bitcoin is in the middle, Ethereum is slightly bearish, XRP is slightly bullish, Binance Coin is in the middle, Solana is slightly bullish, and Dogecoin is very negative. He emphasized that negative sentiment is a good sign for potential bounces.

Meme Coin Market Analysis

Brian discussed the discussion rate of meme coins versus layer 1s and layer 2s. He noted that layer 1s are seeing an increasing amount of discussion, while meme coins are seeing very little interest compared to the peak meme coin season in mid-November. He stated that this is a good sign for the long term, as it indicates people are trying to be safer with their investments.

MYTH Analysis

Brian analyzed Mythos, the 336th largest market cap asset. He noted that it has a ton of address activity and network growth metrics going back to early 2024, but the price doesn't start until late November. He noted that the network is not getting a ton of activity at the moment, and that the long-term MVRV is very high, while the 30-day MVRV is negative. He also noted that whale wallets are declining, which is not a great sign.

2025 Market Outlook

Brian concluded that the overall picture for crypto going into mid-January is one of long-term upside. He cautioned that the Trump inauguration could be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, but that long-term, he still likes the way crypto looks based on the current information.

Alternative Market Scenarios

Maksim offered a counterpoint, suggesting the possibility of a prolonged bear market in 2025. He emphasized the importance of considering unpopular ideas and being open-minded. He stated that if they see confirmation of a bear market, they will share the relevant metrics. He also noted that they haven't seen a return to accumulation mode in Bitcoin, which is why he agrees there is a possibility for a bull market to exist.

Conclusion

Brian and Maksim's analysis provides a comprehensive, data-driven perspective on the current crypto market. They highlighted the importance of monitoring on-chain metrics, social sentiment, and economic factors to make informed investment decisions. Their expert analysis underscores the value of real-time data and critical thinking in navigating the complexities of the crypto market.

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