Maker — How are things looking now

Assets covered: Maker (MKR)
Metrics used: Liquidations, Debt Created, Supply Distribution by balance of addresses, MVRV, Network Growth, Daily Active Addresses
Charts Layout:

Maker is one of few projects showing confident growth last days. As an experienced DeFi project it managed to gracefully handle a cascade of liquidations on this downtrend. No wonder it's on a way up now.

Source: SanGraphs

See the spike on the right? These were liquidations in Maker. The protocol handled it quite well. It's a good sign. Enough protocol users. Things just working as designed. Why wouldn't MKR grow against others?

Debt Created

Source: SanGraphs

No significant debt creation is happening last weeks. It's a very bullish sign. Traders do not feel enough confident, they think it's too risky to mint DAI now. While in fact it's probably the best moment to mint. Especially taking into account overall market fear.

Who accumulated Maker?

Supply distribution by balance of addresses, from 1k to 10k MKR tokens:

This group seems to be the most wealthy excluding exchanges. Holders are usually buying early and buying each bottom. And even buying the tops.

Same group on a twice larger time frame, one year:

Looks like a permanent accumulation trend. Periods of strong buying and periods of lazy buying can be seen. The thing is they seem to be not in the game yet. They haven't started buying this particular bottom.

Shifting to a bit smaller whales, holding from 100 to 1000 MKR:

They tend to react early. Holdings decreased early before the bottom. And started buying early. A nice correlation with price is visible. In April they were dumping ahead of the price, before the real top. We could suggest this group is also able to move the market slightly.

Smaller whales once again, from 10 to 100 MKR:

This group started to offload early too. These are early movers as well. It's impressive how early they started accumulation trend, in November.

We could summarize that those who are able to affect the market, they have started their moves already. Weeks ago.

MVRV 30d:

This metric has already left the 'buy' zone, very close to neutral now.

MVRV 180d:

Is still in a nice long term 'buy' zone.

Network Growth:

Amount of new MKR addresses is almost invisible compared to one year before. The crowd is not here yet.

Active Addresses:

Same outlook here, very little activity on the network. No crowd here.

Wrapping up

We could probably witness a kind of a correction in Maker soon. Because current onchain activity level is quite low (as seen on a couple of last charts). The crowd in not in MKR yet. Only the smart money. Meanwhile Maker is holding good, the protocol is working nicely. One massive group of holders (10-100 MKR) is already buying, the second one (100-1000 MKR) could join very soon.

There is a chance MKR could drop down once again providing even a better risk/reward entry point. Probably.

Charts used:

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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