LINK breaks out as it moves towards previous ATH

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Nov 16, 2019

LINK continues its journey to previous ATH as it breaks out to reclaim the $3 USD mark.

In a previous insight, we wrote about how the crowd might have capitulated before the rally in October and how a further upside may be in place following a correction.

Let's take a quick look at how things are one month later.

Crowd reactions

  • This hype is crazy. Sit down and ask urself. Is chainlink really worth $1billion
    Chainlink gona 100$ soon top 5 coins
  • No one really knows. "staking" could end up being an unimportant part of the network. The chainlink team basically took the throw a bunch of sh*t at the wall and see what sticks approach to ensuring it's secure.
  • Dont buy chainlink, premined ico scam team owns 20% of the tokens.
  • Link 100$ soon
  • BTC will dump more and Link will pump more today I think
  • Yikes it looks like LINK is on the verge of dumping very hard
  • Hi where can I short link?
  • It's never good to short LINK.

Generally, reactions are still somewhat mixed. Although flood of shilling LINK seem to be toned down. Rather mild as compared to peak crowd excitement.

Social volume

Chainlink related social mentions are slowly rising with each leg up but nothing compared to what we have seen back in June/July periods. Crowd is there, but nothing too crazy at the moment.

Token movements

In the past month, Token age consumed has seen some spikes, indicating large amount of idle tokens have started moving. More specifically on 25th Oct and 7th Nov.

On average, these tokens have not moved for:

25th Oct - 27.869 weeks

07 Nov - 14 weeks

Together with the token age consumed spikes, it is also observed that Exchange deposit transactions volume spiked as well during those dates.

This may indicate that the short to mid-term holders might be taking profit. For example, the address 0x89c51c0c4c14a092a8543e672ae5f756110ddac3 is responsible for multiple large deposits to Binance.

Holder distribution

Number of LINK holders continue to increase since the capitulation in late September when the price bottomed.

Majority of the top holders are idle. Some have been actively accumulating over the past 14 days.

Source: whalesmind

Will we see a continued uptrend?

MVRV Long/Short difference which measures the profitability/loss of long/short term holders is at -1.77% (loss) and slowly inching above 0%. Generally, it is observed that when the MVRV L/S diff of a token gets above 0%, there is a higher probability that a new uptrend has started.

However, do take this with a pinch of salt as MVRV L/S diff tend to work best for coins that have a longer history. E.g Bitcoin.

Not long now before we find out.

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Nov 16, 2019

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