Learning to filter our false positive indicators with SUSHI
Assets covered: SushiSwap (SUSHI)
Metrics used: Network Profit Loss, Active Addresses, Supply Distribution
Maximum pain. This is the best moment to buy usually. Does Santiment have a metric indicating this "pain" within any specific token holders? Yes, and it's called Network Profit Loss.
Here’s how NPL works: for each coin that moves on the blockchain, we take the price at which it last moved and assume this to be its acquisition price. Once it changes addresses again, we assume this to be its sell price. Because of this, spikes in NPL suggest that the coins currently moving on the blockchain are - on average - being moved (or ‘sold’) at significant profit, and vice versa.
We created a special screener to highlight coins with minimal NPL, same as with "maximum pain". Which coin is leading?
This is SushiSwap! Let's have a look where we are at the moment.
First of all, how does the NPL chart itself looks like for SUSHI?
Network Profit Loss is indicating the biggest loss since November. And it basically pinpointed the start of SUSHI rally. Good.
What about onchain activity, active addresses?
SUSHI active addresses are increasing, and are now at around 2,200 level, which is a very good level itself. As well as it's healthy trend. Nice
This chart looks very optimistic. A group of whales is probably accumulating. But who are they? Can we trust it?
Summoning the Top Holders Table:
Paging down until 100K+ SUSHI. Hm, why are they holding the same amount of tokens? There are dozens of different addresses with totally the same SUSHI holdings. These are the ones probably responsible for the spike on the last chart. Who are they?
Opening a few random holders transactions:
What is this? Looking very suspicious. Each wallet is funded by a hundred of similar smaller transactions. Dozens of wallets. Totally doesn't look like a human whale behaviour.
Mr. Nansen, your thoughts?
Nailed it! These are the Coinbase wallets. Dozens of new exchange wallets.
And it explains all the charts above.
So what do we have here? Coinbase has been generating a lot of onchain events that could be interpreted as sort of a bullish signs on a SUSHI, until we dig deeper. Overall Sushi seems to be not flashing any specific bullish or bearish signs. Except the ones we explained above.
Watch this space.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.
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