Isn't investing less scary when viewed on a 4-year cycle?

Next year marks the year of the U.S. presidential election.
Based on past trends, U.S. stocks tend to be cheap in this year.

Below is a graph illustrating the lows of the S&P 500 index during U.S. presidential election years since 1980, represented by a green dashed line on a white background.

This trend holds true for all cycles except from 2000 to 2003.

Incidentally, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the stock market performs best in the year following the midterm elections.

S&P 500 index and its lows during the U.S. presidential election year, trading volume, and U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds.

Next year, 2024, is also a leap year and coincides with the halving of Bitcoin miner rewards.

Let me briefly mention this monetary policy of the Bitcoin network, also known as the halving event.

It is a mechanism to control the supply of Bitcoin to the market, which occurs in a 4-year cycle.

Just after Bitcoin's inception in 2009, the miner reward per block was 50 BTC. That miner reward halved to 25 BTC in 2012, 12.5 BTC in 2016, and 6.25 BTC in 2020.

If mining continues at the current pace, it is expected that the miner reward per block will halve to 3.125 BTC around April of next year.

If the supply pace of Bitcoin decreases through the halving event and demand remains consistent, upward pressure on Bitcoin prices is anticipated after the 2024 halving event.

Most cryptocurrencies allow access to information equivalent to a 'public ledger', which helps gauge this demand.

This graph represents the Bitcoin price and the number of addresses involved in transactions on the Bitcoin network. This can be a reference for gauging demand for Bitcoin. (The gray vertical lines indicate when the halving events occurred.)

Bitcoin price, number of addresses involved in transactions, and halving event.

Returning to U.S. stocks, the gold price remains high, and the interest rate on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.2%.

I'm keeping an eye on consumer discretionary (consumer discretionary goods are items that are considered non-essential and are typically purchased when consumers have disposable income) stocks like Amazon, Tesla, Nike, Home Depot, and McDonald's.

If we apply past trends to the next presidential election year, for instance, one approach might be to use dollar-cost averaging to purchase global equities such as the MSCI All Country World Index throughout the next year and hold them until the fourth year following the presidential election.

Disclaimer: As always, my post is not financial advise.

Thanks for reading!

If you enjoyed this insight please leave a like, join discussion in the comments and share it with your friends!


Conversations (0)

No comments yet
Be the first to comment