How You Could Have Seen Ethereum's Late-December Price Bottom

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brianq
Feb 13, 2020


So you say you missed Ethereum's $120 bottom in late December, and you're now shocked to see prices trading above $260, just 50 days later. Missing out on a +112% investment in 50 days on a crypto asset that is heavily praised and regarded as a force in the industry can be a tough one to swallow, but the vast majority of traders are right there with you.


It's just never easy to make perfectly successful buys and "knife-catch" to try and catch bottoms based on often completely arbitrary support levels. But luckily, we've got some actual fundamentals and metrics that can foreshadow when a turning point in the markets is starting to form. And these indications of a pivot started signaling all over Sanbase and Sandata right before and over the past few weeks of this run.



There were (and still are) a variety of metrics to let you know when the next big buying opportunity is for Ethereum, Bitcoin, or over 900 of your other favorite projects. Let's take a look at some of them in the context of how you could have taken advantage of Ethereum's bargain bin prices around Christmas, 2019:


1) Top Holders Total - This metric shows what the percentage of total supply of $ETH is being held by the top 10 addresses at any point in time. In early November, accumulation began, and these addresses aggressively began adding in late December. We recently put together an article all about the Top Holders metric, and how it can be customized and used in a variety of different ways not just for Ethereum, but any ERC-20 project you'd like to track. It also discusses the new Top Holder's Supply comparison Sansheets model we have available. Our Sanbase PRO version updates in real-time without the month delay.


2) Network Growth - In mid-December, we saw a two-week span of significantly higher than normal network growth. It normalized right after Christmas, which is right when prices began to move up parabolically. Network Growth shows the number of new addresses being created on the network each day. Essentially, this chart illustrates user adoption over time, and can be used to identify when the project is gaining - or losing - traction. We have a short video breakdown of how it works, and it truly is a great indicator to track on a daily/weekly basis.


3) Maximal Mean Age and Mean Dollar Invested Age - Over the past month in particular, there has been a flattening out in #Ethereum's Maximal Mean Age on our Sandata. This means that the average tokens and dollars invested have been lowering their average duration in which they have been sitting in the same location. For more on how this Sanbase and Sandata metric works, we encourage you to check out this article all about it.

4) NVT - Since mid-January, we have seen a turning point in the long, 7-month bearish signal our Sansheets NVT model has produced. February is now showing as the first neutral month after a sea of red. This signal measures the amount of token circulation (unique coins being transferred to different addresses) being produced on the Ethereum network, and comparing this to the market cap. We are starting to finally see a justification in price based on the amount of tokens being circulated. For more on this metric, feel free to visit our Introduction to NVT article, where we go over exactly how and why this price prediction model has been so effective.

Let us know if we can offer any clarification on these metrics and help explain their legitimacy. We offer personal walkthroughs for those willing to learn more, and you can contact our support team to purchase a subscription and get started. Cheers!

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brianq
Feb 13, 2020

Thanks for reading!

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