How strong is Ethereum close to ATH

Assets covered: Ethereum (ETH)

Metrics used: Social volume, Funding rate, Daily Active Deposits, Exchange Inflow, Supply on exchanges, Mean Coin Age, Mean Dollar Invested Age, MVRV, Miners Balance.

Ethereum has "touched" it's all time high. But is it really a top?

There is a mix of signals we'd like to share.

Social Volume

Social volume is currently increasing along with price. Seems to be on an uptrend for the last week. That's probably why it's number one in Santrends right now. Compared to it's previous two week average it's still high. Overall nothing too crazy yet.

Funding Rate

Bitmex funding rate is declining. Funding rate for Ethereum isn't necessarily as telling as for Bitcoin. But you it definitely shows how crazy bullish the derivatives market was. And last week it seems to be normalizing. Although spikes still very high, the trend is downward, so it seems like less and less of a bullish sentiment.

Daily Active Deposits

This might be a little bit concerning. We're not really seeing a whole lot of people selling. Similar to BTC actually. The last spike was capitulation in dip, very nice bottom indicator. Since then this is very low, even comparing to 2020, like a six month low. Less and less deposits for ETH.

If it doesn't pick up, meaning a lot of people just waiting for the top to form, then it will dump earlier than expected. Moves should be visible in Daily Active Deposits, Active addresses, Exchange Inflow and Age Consumed. If these are following price spike - all good. If they are lagging for the next 36 hours - it's not good.

Exchange Inflow

There has been a spike of Exchange Inflow yesterday, quite a notable spike. Anyway It is still in downtrend. Even thought the trend is down, we wouldn't even 'discount' it. For now it's not necessarily a network wide decision to take profit. But likely to be some elevated sell pressure.

Supply on exchanges

Ethereum supply on exchanges starting to grow once again. Not a lot, but definitely notable after a lot of downward pressure. Seems to be a little bit of a move to sell.

Mean Coin Age & Mean Dollar Invested Age

MCA started to plato a little bit, while MDIA still dropping. ETH that was purchased on high cliff (January 10 top) is still being traded and distributed. People are selling their expensively purchased ETH. The average age of ETH on the network started to grow slightly, but failed.

Similar to BTC - people were like waiting to see what happens.


MVRV 30d is about 30%, which isn't close to it's yearly high, but it's still within the danger zone. And it's the most concerning sign that we see. Cause we are in established danger territory now. Well it could go higher, but we would be very careful to accumulate at current levels.

Miners balance

Ethereum miners have actually been selling quite a lot. This is the first time since a while their balances drop below 1M ETH (for reference: ETH2.0 deposit contract balance - 2.7M ETH). And looks like they have been selling since we broke 1000 USD. This is a relatively concerning signal that miners now showing a little bit of fear.

Summing up

There are some relatively concerning signals on ETH.

1. ETH is in top-1 Santrends.

This has usually been a bearish indicator, but the study that we've done does not include ETH and other top five coins cause all of them produce a lot of social noise permanently, day by day.

2. Social volume is relatively normal compared to monthly activity.

But be mindful that at least more and more people talking about ETH.

Obviously because of the ATH, but high chatter is never a friend to an asset.

3. MVRV in red territory. It's lower than on previous top, but still overinflated.

4. Exchange Inflow plotted a spike. Yes the trend is down, but this is the highest spike in the last week. There is definitely going to be an elevated sell pressure for ETH.

These are some signs that we might see a short term cooling off period.


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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