Halvening talks spike before the turning point

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Garry Kabankin
May 11, 2020

Summary: Measuring crowd sentiment few hours prior to halving. Most are bearish

Assets covered: BTC

Metrics used: Social volume


Bias towards halving related BTC price action seems to be quite different.

Some of traders with good track records expect things will happen first in June.

Bitcoin 𝕵ack, a well known trader and market analyst, posted an interesting three month outlook:

14K by June possible:


Santiment has a fine tuned lens to observe real data collected from thousands crypto social channels. It's possible to compare how many people are posting messages containing "buy" or "buying' with the opposite - people posting "sell" or "dump":


Blue line stands for "buy", red line - "sell", green - BTC price

And it looks like now people are more interested in selling instead of buying.


Next, how is "halving" itself represented in crypto talks?

Blue - "halving" mentions, green - BTC price

This chart is telling an interesting story that each strong spike in "halving" mentions correlates to actually price turning points. Every time there is a strong spike it either consolidates or goes down.


The amount of talks is picking up and it looks like we already reached the peak few days ago exactly when we hit local top.


Generally looks like everyone is waiting for cryptoparty or halving to pass by. And you know the price might follow.


But crypto is always full of surprises.

Remember macro investor Tudor Jones saying he's in Bitcoin?

Source: Polemic Paine on Twitter

Welcome new big hodler, Mr. Jones! -20% in a couple of days.

Institutional or big players coming at the end, welcome to crypto.


A short overview of previous halvings:

Source: CoinDesk

Both time halving happened in the middle of the bull run.

First one lasted 18 months when BTC gained almost 200x.

Second halving bull run continued 21 months and gained 40x.

And the third one in 2020...


Stay tuned!


Bonus

Ever seen how halving itself looks like?
This is a piece of BTC code responsible for halving:

BTChalvingbuyselldump
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Garry Kabankin
May 11, 2020

Thanks for reading!

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