FTT - The implosion no one saw coming

Assets covered: FTT

Metrics used: Social trends, Social Dominance, Supply on Exchanges

Chart: https://app.santiment.net/s/R8GMf2Rx

Social trends - Sanbase

FTX related keywords continue to dominate our Top 10 hourly trends as more details about how insolvent and the shady stuff FTX was engaged surfaced.

If you have not been following on what's happening, here's a great summary by Twitter user jonwu_ on FTX's collapse.

Social Volume / Social dominance

ftt OR ftx mentions - Sanbase

No surprises here given how major this blow up is, mentions of "ftt" or "ftx" are at its highest levels seen over the past 1 year.


FTT price action - Sanbase

Ever since Coindesk released a new piece on 2nd Nov about how Alameda's balance was mainly made up of FTT tokens and its liabilities, the spotlight was soon on FTX.

After a series of events, FTT has fallen off the cliff with huge volumes in the process.

To put it in perspective, this week has seen the highest trading volume ever.

FTT highest trading volume - Sanbase

The previous highest trading volume was seen right at the top.

While asset classes have been rather co-related for some time now, we are starting to see some divergences.

Crypto vs Gold vs SPX - Sanbase

Especially in Gold.

Funding Rates

FTT funding rates across platforms - Coinglass

Everyone is just heavily shorting FTT with whatever they've got. I guess the bet is that given the circumstances around FTX, FTT is going to....

Supply on Exchanges

FTT Supply on Exchanges - Sanbase

FTT's supply on exchanges saw sharp increases over the week as Binance sought to offload their FTT after Coindesk's report.

It has however stopped as CZ finished his call with SBF.

While we are on the topic of exchanges, it's really weird to see that some people are still depositing into FTX even though things are going to shits and withdrawals are disabled.

FTX deposits - Etherscan

What's to come

It's still early in the implosion and it remains to be seen to what extent the damage will be as so many questions still remain as to:

  • How much of a hole did FTX/Alameda created?
  • Who are the lenders?
  • Who's going to blow up as well due to contagion?

It's likely that bodies will start floating up in coming days. As it is, we have now seen 2 major players affected:

There's also around $870M worth of SOL (at current prices) unlocking in epoch 370, which is around 16hrs from the time of writing.

SOL unlock - Solana Compass

What's going to happen with the SOL after folks get it? Anyone's guess really but market is pricing in a dump at the moment.

Given that everyone's pretty much on the edge and any negative rumors that surface is likely to see a further drop in FTT's price.

Even without, it's really hard to imagine how FTT/FTX will recover from this.


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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