Four Trends Driving Markets Heading into a Celebratory Weekend
Most of the patient investors and traders that have stuck around in crypto through the ranging summer and unpredictable year have been quite happy with how October has played out:
- Bitcoin just touched $30K for the second time in a week (though it did once again drop back below quickly).
- Ripple and the XRP community appear to have officially been declared the victors in defending its lawsuit against the aggressive SEC, who dropped their crusade to try and classify the asset as a security.
But on the other end, there are still looming (albeit more minor) concerns that traders have been expressing:
- The Reddit community, undeniably large and vocal, will be losing its ability to reward and tip fellow community members through MOON's and DONUT's. Though these are relatively small, they could reflect less participants in crypto overall, and less money eventually funneling into Bitcoin and large caps
- Jerome Powell and the Fed are maintaining serious concerns toward the economic health of the US, aka the country that drives crypto forward (or backward) the most.
As we head into the final stretch of October, these four topics (and traders' sentiment about them) will likely be the ones that impact market prices the most.
We have created a chart located here that you can track for these upcoming few weeks to see how the social volume will ebb and flow for each of these subjects:
Make sure to turn off social dominance and update to the last week using the date range at the top. You can also optionally turn on the 'Shared axis' button to see more proper context of how these four topics directly compare to one another.
Looking at each topic, the trends that stick out the most are:
- High discussions of the $30K range are typically going to be celebratory, therefore you'll see it overlapping with high FOMO sentiment. When Bitcoin's price is trying to penetrate a resistance level for the long-term, we will prefer to see the crowd less hyped about it coming to fruition. Major spikes will usually be indicative of a top signal due to the crowd's over-eagerness.
- High discussions of the Ripple/XRP lawsuit win may already showing a bit of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' aspect to it. Yesterday, XRP jumped +10% when insiders were first notified of this news. And now that the explanation for the jump has hit the mainstream, XRP isn't seeing any secondary decouplings from the market (at least not yet).
- High discussions related to Reddit discontinuing its token tipping will likely be a mild reflection of overall crypto market FUD, which could have a positive impact on prices. Watch to see if there is a wave of negative posts in the final days leading up to the official removal of MOON and DONUT tipping on November 8th.
- High discussions related to Powell and the overall US economic concerns expressed by the Fed will only impact crypto if the cryptocurrency sector begins following the S&P 500 again. Right now, crypto's prices are trading closely with the value of gold, which could be an attribution of the war. But don't be surprised if we begin seeing the sectors trading together again, which would mean negative news coming from the Fed can lead to crypto price tops as we saw throughout 2022 and early 2023.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.
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