End Of June Recap Chart BTC & ETH
Bitcoin short and long term: Price action, on-chart and technical
It seems like the past 3 months have been slow and tedious for BTC/crypto traders. Volumes are dropping, daily addresses and the overall use of crypto has declined, mining crackdown in Asia,El Salvador legalizing BTC, ETH 2.0 rollout.
What does all of those things have to do with the price action of the biggest cryptocurrency in the world?
I only use a couple strategies and patterns on the graphs. Personally, I wait the formation of those patterns, the continuation of my strategy being tied to those signals and closing the position as soon as i can tell that the price will not go they way I predicted.
Lets us check the big picture first.
For a good long term idea about BTC`s PA we can just take a look at the weekly chart.
From 10k in October last year to an ATH @65k in April 2021. So crypto is not for the faint-hearted, at least not for the long run. Not anymore - unless you have nerves of steel and you can keep your positions open no matter the dip.
The market will always go in cycles, uptrend cycle, downtrend cycle. The price cannot always go up, or down for that matter.
These cycles can take months or even years to complete, depending on the volatility of the asset and the community.
So after all those months of rallying, we can see on the big time frame chart the major points where we knew "battle" are going to take place, ex:35k area.
The fact that the price corrected so deep does not mean BTC is dead, it means the asset is highly volatile and should not be traded unless you don't care about what happens to your money, or you have the knowledge and the nerves for it.
So after a couple of months of rallying, price hits ATH @65k, and ever since the price keeps dipping right? Long term investors start to take profits, short term investors start to sell on a loss, and that's how you get a market capitulation.
Not the end of crypto, but a market capitulation sure sounds like one.
HOWEVER, in the last 3 months we can see that the price has started a lateral movement, which means the price has now stabilized, and we are testing new price levels for any momentum.
Daily chart paints a more detailed picture of these last months.
New aggressive buy signal off of 34K break now in play (Friday - 02/07 ). What makes the idea compelling is the improved reward/risk which can be defined by the 32K area. IF the renewed bullish momentum can follow through, a test of the high 30K's is within reason for the coming week.
Now that we have our main market pattern, lateral movement, there are basically 2 things that can happen:
1) Breaking of the support area around the 30k level, which automatically will open the market to new sell positions until the new liquidity area and major support level that we have @ 17k area.
2) Breaking of the resistance area around the 40k level, where we will look for confirmations to enter buy trades with the first target being 50k area. IF the price breaks this resistance too then we can go for the next liquidity area @60k.
Crypto is a highly volatile asset and prone to sudden changes. Higher time frames mean better pattern recognition and continuation.
So in conclusion,after a huge impulse(65k ATH BTC) and a deep correction(to 30K), buyers and sellers have found equilibrium, but this will not last for long. Short positions if the price breaks support and forms bearish patterns and bull positions if the 40k resistance is broken and the price action forms bullish patterns on lower time frames.
Ethereum short and long term:Price action, on-chart and technical
After a similar big impulse like BTC, ETH has corrected very steep but also normally IMO, as the price surged for 7 consecutive months before the big selloff.
You can see on the weekly chart the cycle of accumulation and redistribution clear as daylight. So where are we now?
Ethereum hits a two-week high of $2,389 on Sunday thanks to anticipation for the dramatic London hard fork that's due to take full effect later in July.
One step towards making Ethereum a more environmentally friendly coin is the London Hard Fork update, which will hopefully sort out the crazy high transaction fees that the network has been seeing recently. The upgrades have been a long time coming and June was a major month for the network with four testnet launches, the last of which was June 26. Prices have spent almost every day in the green since, as excitement sends buyers into a flurry.
In terms of price action, sellers seem to have a hard time breaking the 1700 support level.
That level being targeted by bear waves not once not twice but three times. Rejected always.
That tells us that we have a lot of buyers (or powerful buyers) at that crucial level or the same buyers(whales) that took the price down after the big surge, are now testing new buy positions to see if the price holds.
For now the price follows in BTC`s footsteps. The correlation is still strong.
If we take a look deeper into ETH and daily chart activity, we can see the 3 points of rejection where buyers held their own(for now).
If we have a bull market, and presumably we will go with the market. ("Trend is friend.") If the price reaches 1700 again, we have a long position.
The chart will always tell where are the important areas . 60/70% of the time the price breaks an area (support or resistance) and forms a confirmation pattern, it will continue in the original direction depending on the impulse.
Worth Mentioning this is the first time opinions are shared from our End. We are two independent amateurs please take the above information at your own risk. As usual this is not investment advice.
Courtesy to Andrei Ratcu for writing the insight. Published By Klauss
Update: Correction 02.07*