Curve's Founder Trouble and Liquidations Cause Massive Anomalies to Capitalize On

🧵 $CRV is trending due to significant liquidations incurred by the altcoin's founder, Michael Egorov. News broke of him borrowing stablecoins collateralized by CRV tokens, which led to a major drop in value and many of his own liquidations, and others. Here's a breakdown of metrics to watch:

1) Trading Volume has spiked to its highest level since December, 2021 as a result of this news. Right now, traders are leaning into the downside pressure, indicating FUD is rampant.

2) Unsurprisingly, Curve is easily the top trending topic in crypto after this news broke. Other than brief explosions in discussion in July, 2023 and August, 2020, we have never seen the level of discourse toward $CRV that we are seeing now.

3) Active addresses (the amount of unique addresses interacting on the network) and network growth (the amount of new addresses created) are both at their highest level since a similar price drop occurred in late July/early August, 2023.

4) A ratio we value highly is known as 'Deposits in Daily Active Addresses', which is the ratio of active deposits that make up the total amount of active addresses at any time. At 35.5%, this is the highest proportion of deposits on Curve since August, 2021.

5) Predictably, with Egorov's wallet(s) likely included, the amount of $CRV tokens held by non-exchange whales has plummeted, beginning with a sudden crash from 1.34B to 441M coins held by these whales back on June 5th. Though there was an immediate recovery, it's dropping again.

6) Despite the uncertain future of Curve, there has been a trend of major consolidation here in June. On May 7th, 2024, the 3 wallets with 100M+ $CRV held exactly half of the supply. Since then, they have added 4.89% more of the supply from small wallets (101M total coins).

7) In the past day, the amount of $CRV tokens on exchanges has nearly doubled, jumping from 333.2M to 606.2M. As you might expect, this generally always foreshadows intended selloffs and panic.

8) The Supply Held by Lendings has dropped from a staggering 73.4M $CRV on June 10th to just 10.6M here on June 13th.

9) The average trading returns of short-term swing traders (30-day MVRV) is at a reasonable -2%. However, addresses active in the past 365 days (365-day MVRV) are at a 'juicy' -35%, the lowest it has been since September, 2023.


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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