Crypto Support Amidst Trade War Confusion

Bitcoin continues to show resilience as global financial markets remain highly reactive to shifting tariff announcements from the Trump administration. There has been a relief rally in stock markets that began last Wednesday following Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, which we covered a big social volume spike immediately after it happened. The asterisk, of course, was that China & US tariffs continued to increase upon one another as retaliations escalated.

More supposed good news then poured in following the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s announcement late Friday that smartphones, laptops, and storage devices would be temporarily excluded from Trump’s 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports. While President Trump later clarified these electronics would still fall under a different "tariff bucket" on Saturday, crypto markets (which are always open) reacted positively in the short term.

Unsurprisingly, when stock markets got a chance to react to the temporary tariff exclusions on Monday morning (US time), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed a slight jump... and Bitcoin briefly got up to $85,810. Since bottoming out around $75,000 back on April 8th, BTC has rallied back +12.9%.

Behind Bitcoin’s rise is a combination of easing tariff concerns and improving blockchain fundamentals. But as we know, the retail crowd really doesn't care too much about the reasoning for its ebbs and flows very often... most traders have just been anxious for a breakout. And it looks like this price rebound has been enough to skew traders into a more bullish mood than we have seen since the start of the tariff madness back on April 2nd.

Another interesting wrinkle has been the increased respect being given toward permabull figures like Michael Saylor and Strategy (MSTR), who added on another $285M Bitcoin today to their enormous stash. Tech giants such as Apple also benefited from the temporary exemption news, climbing 2.37% during Monday’s session.

Still, not all experts are optimistic that the tariff pause will offer lasting relief. President Trump insisted that no country or industry is "getting off the hook," and confirmed that semiconductors and the broader electronics supply chain remain targets for national security-based tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that these tariffs are still expected to be introduced within the next two months. Such uncertainty makes it difficult for investors and corporations to plan ahead, even amid short-term rallies.

Although volatility is still very much 'a thing', Bitcoin’s recent strength is supported by on-chain signals. A few key metrics to watch are:

• Network Realized Profit/Loss: BTC is finally starting to see a consistent jump in NRPL, which is typically a requirement for most rallies to continue.

• Supply on Exchanges: The amount of available BTC sitting on exchanges continues to dip, as there are more and more signs of traders holding on for the long run (and not having plans for a major sell-off.

• Key Stakeholder Accumulation: Wallets with 10 or more BTC have continued to rise in holdings, launching to an all-time high 16.36M BTC held, while retailers continue to shed their coins during the volatility.

The crypto ecosystem is also offering investors with a unique solution to one of the core challenges exposed by recent tariff debates: supply chain transparency. Blockchain technology can track the origin and movement of goods more reliably than traditional systems, helping customs officials verify if products were routed through lower-tariff countries. Projects like Truebit are working with government software vendors to integrate blockchain into global trade and compliance systems, highlighting crypto's growing role beyond price speculation.

International trade negotiations remain tense. While the European Union has delayed retaliatory tariffs to allow room for talks, China has cut off exports of key rare-earth minerals used in tech manufacturing. President Trump has vowed to review tariffs across the entire electronics supply chain, while also hinting at targeted relief for U.S. automakers. China’s President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, is reinforcing trade partnerships in Southeast Asia, particularly with Vietnam.

Finally, public sentiment toward actual economic conditions across the world reflect deep unease about economic direction. A CBS News poll from April 13th shows that 59% of Americans believe the economy is worsening, with Trump’s approval on economic issues falling sharply in recent weeks.

Even though cryptocurrency investors & traders are a tad more optimistic, recent history has shown that there is going to remain a heavy correlation between what cryptocurrencies and equities are doing during any given week. Any signs of decoupling will likely be temporary.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.