Whether you are from the US or elsewhere, you have likely heard plenty of news about the very polarizing election between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in previous months. Few deny the impact that the country's politics, policies, and economic approaches have on global markets, which very much include cryptocurrency.

Just like in previous election years, the results of this race are expected to be quite close. This means it is a near certainty that we will be waiting multiple days after today's Election Day (November 5th) to find out who will be inducted as the next president of one of the world's most powerful nations.

Donald Trump Case:

We have documented that there is a clear pro-Trump bias among crypto traders, likely due to Trump's publicly stated intentions to adopt pro-crypto policies.

Some of these include:

• Advocacy for a National Bitcoin Reserve: On July 27, 2024, during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, Trump proposed creating a strategic national bitcoin stockpile, aiming to position the U.S. as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption.

• Commitment to Crypto-Friendly Regulation: In the same July 27, 2024, speech, Trump pledged to establish a bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council to develop clear and supportive regulatory guidelines for the cryptocurrency industry.

• Promise to Replace SEC Leadership: Trump expressed intentions to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler, criticizing the current administration's regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, and suggesting a shift towards more favorable oversight.

• Launch of a Cryptocurrency Exchange: In September 2024, Trump's sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, founded World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency exchange, indicating the family's active participation in the crypto industry.

Kamala Harris Case:

In 2023 and 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris made several statements indicating support for the cryptocurrency industry as well.

• Commitment to Encouraging Digital Assets: On September 22, 2024, during a fundraiser at Cipriani Wall Street in Manhattan, Harris expressed her intent to "encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors."

• Support for a Regulatory Framework: In October 2024, Harris unveiled plans to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and digital assets, aiming to protect investors.
  
• Acknowledgment of Blockchain's Potential: In August 2024, Harris acknowledged the potential of blockchain technology in various sectors, emphasizing the need for balanced regulation that fosters innovation while ensuring consumer protection.

• Engagement with Crypto Industry Leaders: Throughout 2024, Harris's campaign engaged with cryptocurrency industry leaders to discuss the future of digital assets, signaling an openness to understanding and integrating crypto innovations into her policy considerations.
  

While both candidates have shown support for the crypto industry, Trump's proposals have been perceived by the crypto crowd as being a bit more specific and extensive. Harris's statements indicate a supportive stance but with a focus on consumer protection and regulatory frameworks.

As a result of the crowd's perceptions of these two candidates, we see an overwhelmingly higher level of mentions related to Trump's crypto discussions and policies compared to Harris's. See below:

Crypto's Performance in Previous US Elections:

Let's take a quick look at some of the statistics of previous elections:

2016 Presidential Election

• Election Day: November 8, 2016
• Media Called the Election: Early morning on November 9, 2016 (1 Day Later)
• President-Elect Confirmed by Congress: January 6, 2017
• Inauguration Date: January 20, 2017
• President: Donald J. Trump

We initially saw a 5-day minor crypto retrace after the announcement of Trump's victory in 2016. For those who remember this time, it was full of many unknowns about what the former Celebrity Apprentice host would truly do as President of the United States. However, Bitcoin and altcoins quickly recovered after the initial volatility.

2020 Presidential Election

• Election Day: November 3, 2020
• Media Called the Election: November 7, 2020 (4 Days Later)
• President-Elect Confirmed by Congress: January 7, 2021
• Inauguration Date: January 20, 2021
• President: Joseph R. Biden Jr.
  

The announcement of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election was far more positive, and markets ripped ahead almost instantly after it was official. However, this was also just 8 months into the world's COVID-19 shutdowns. Many would argue this bull run was inevitable, and would have happened no matter who was elected as President... or even if there was no election at all. Not that the election was an afterthought, but many were far more concerned about their own safety and the possibility of the pandemic-feared world never being the same again.

2024 Presidential Election

• Election Day: November 5, 2024
• Media Expected to Call the Election: Within days after November 5, 2024 (based on counting speed and any close races)
• President-Elect Confirmation by Congress: Expected January 6, 2025
• Expected Inauguration Date: January 20, 2025

As we can see, the two most recent elections don't exactly provide a clear picture (nor enough of a sample size) to really provide data we can confidently rely upon. In both 2016 and 2020, markets went on a bullish roll either instantly or within a week after the new president elect was announced. But is it really safe to make assumptions that post-election patterns in crypto are generally bullish when... crypto has been mostly climbing throughout its history anyways? Perhaps the only correct conclusion is that the impact that the US election has on cryptocurrency is fairly overstated.

Despite the limited data from recent elections, one trend is clear: cryptocurrency markets are highly sensitive to political uncertainty and can be volatile during election cycles. Traders often react to policy changes, regulatory shifts, and even candidates' rhetoric, which means that as the final results are confirmed, we may see significant price movements based on perceived support or restrictions. As such, this election outcome is expected to send ripples through the crypto community, with investors closely watching for signs of the next administration’s stance on digital assets.

In the end, regardless of whether Trump or Harris claims the presidency, crypto’s future may well depend on how effectively either administration adapts to this fast-evolving landscape. With the digital economy and financial technology advancing at an unprecedented rate, policies that encourage innovation while balancing regulatory concerns could set the tone for the next four years, impacting both U.S. markets and the global crypto ecosystem.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.