Cardano Well Played on News

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Garry Kabankin
Jun 1, 2020
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Summary: Triggered by mainnet news, Cardano lift off may be in closing stage.

Assets covered: ADA

Metrics used: Social Volume, Social Dominance, Sentiment Volume Consumed


Cardano, a blockchain project based on peer-reviewed research and the highly secure Haskell coding language, revealed some anticipated milestones on May 28th in this post - https://decrypt.co/30405/charles-hoskinson-reveals-launch-dates-for-cardanos-shelley

Relative to price it happened here:

News ignited both social volume (amount of ADA mentions, blue bars above) and trading volume. Social volume increased so fast that Cardano ended up at #1 position in Emerging Trends list:

This list basically aims to do 2 things:

  1. - Give you a quick overview of the top developing topics in crypto at the moment
  2. - Help you spot hype peaks and local tops

We’ve actually backtested the performance of 200 coins that made it all the way to top 3 of Emerging Trends list. Here’s what happened to their price 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after they appeared on the list:

A picture is worth a thousand words, but here’s some words just in case: on average, the coins gained more than 15% in 2 weeks before appearing on the Emerging Trends list. The moment they show up on the list (0 on the chart) - the dump begins.


In the 2 weeks since appearing on the Emerging Trends list, the coins we backtested have, on average, lost a massive 8% of their total price. And this is on a sample of 200 coins.


Except this backtested bearish sign for ADA, we'd like to bring here a few other signs to notice.


Social Dominance


Social Dominance is build on top of the Social Data. It compares the Social Volume of ADA to the combined social volume of all available assets. And this is how it looks for Cardano:

It's in decreasing trend. Meanwhile the Social volume itself is going opposite way. This divergence is another bearish sign, cause price is usually not able to sustain rally on fading crowd attention.


Sentiment Volume Consumed


Basically this metric is representing sentiment level adjusted to amount of mentions, so that extreme excitement on 1 or 2 messages only doesn't paint all the crowd in excited colors. This is sentiment volume consumed for Cardano based on Twitter messages:

Wow. It has never been that high since 2019 ADA spring rally. What happened later? A top was reached. Same will likely happen this time as well. Bearish.


By the way it's possible to have a look at these messages contents and evaluate mood yourself using the Social Data Feed tool. It's a powerful cryptoverse search engine, able to find specific social messages in crypto by keywords, particularly "ADA", few examples:

Fundamentally Cardano dev team is one the most productive, appreciate their great work, ADA devactivity chart says it all:

But what can it do with classic "buy the rumours sell the news"?


Surely Cardano is not the last asset pumped this way. Here is a watchlist for coins, that are expected to launch mainnet in June. This kind of trigger seems working quite nice on market lately.


Take care.

ada
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Garry Kabankin
Jun 1, 2020

Thanks for reading!

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