BTC's Positive Volatility Forecasts 🧈 Optimistic Scenario

Dec 19, 2023

December 21 2023 Update

BTC fulfilled the forecast. It's near the final target with a profit of +3.52.00%. You can add that to the +15.35% from the previous position. Everybody who considered the analytics, I cheer for your +18.87% from the latest two positions.

Dear Esteemed Traders,

Everybody asked me to continue the previously fulfilled insight I shared on Santiment. I appreciate the positive feedback I received and was happy to read about your profit. I cheer for your success and gladly continue with my opinion on the market. If you love history, it's the Santiment insight I mentioned: BTC ₿ Broadening Wedge: A Forecast from Support Trendline.

If you don't want to read so much, in short, it was a long I had from $26 600, and another one from $35 900 I shared with you. Some of you might have referred to the comment I wrote about how to build Ethereum sniper bots, but I think everybody meant this long insight.

Here's the continuation:

🧈 Technical Analytics

Despite the latest few bearish 4-hour candles on the BTCUSD market, technical indicators like MACD and RSI have a bullish reading. The RSI oscillator is falling, but it's on the positive side and hasn't made a bearish cross yet. RSI is the purple indicator below the chart. Still below the chart but above RSI, the MACD pane also moves on the bullish side. The EMA's made a positive cross on 18 December and hasn't made a bearish cross yet. If you cross-check the RSI and MACD indications, both indicators seem to be slightly bullish.

🧈 Trendline analytics

BTC is above the support line around $41500 and broke up the green falling trendline on the chart. In the future, the red rising trendline might become an obstacle. It was the same trendline that rejected the price from $43300. If BTC manages to stop the retracement around the support, BTC might target the $44500 resistance once again.

🧈 Forecast

The previous forecast was a bearish prediction that succeeded in shorting BTC from $44000 to $40600. I left this forecast on the chart for reference. It's one that says "SUCCESS" in green. The actual forecast has an optimistic view in which BTC rallies to the resistance.

🧈 Santiment Indicators

The Santiment Exchange Flow Metrics suggest a positive sentiment among traders. Many large investors decided to buy into the bearish candles of the past 24 hours. The recent bearish price action made some retail traders short the market, but the statistical changes of the data suggest the same players took too much risk anyway. They are the same people who would liquidate. So, shaking them off might contribute to the health of the possibly upcoming rally. Some bulls left, but the ones that stay can take more pain. The concentration of stable coins' supply suggests the larger investors are moving a significant amount of USDT to the exchanges, which could indicate a hope of buying the unfolding bearish prices lower. In the long run, that could be a bullish indication, too.

🧈 Machine-Learning AI

Finally, the AI I use to connect Santiment and TradingView, mentioned a significant probability for the bullish scenario to materialize. It's a machine-learning Pine algorithm (with Python extension) that uses natural language processing to decrypt TradingView ideas and cross-check them with decision trees against Santiment's complex indicators. A method I've found satisfyingly consistent in the last three years.

Disclaimer:

This is not an investment advice. Historic results don't guarantee future prices. Do your research.

Kind regards,

Ely

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