BTC price prediction before and after the halvening


  • Summary: price will do what the crowd expects the least
  • Metrics used: Social volume, Coin Age Consumed, On-chain transaction volume
  • Bonus metric: Token Holders distribution
  • Approach used: behaviour analyses

One of the best investment approaches is the following: spot "what the crowd expects" and bet against bet. You can't do it on daily basis. Not even every week. The crowd doesn't have "consensus" all the time.

But when it does, the smart investor knows that this is the time to act.
The price will do something completely different from what the crowd expects.

Without much more talking, let's see some data visualisations. We will connect it to the holistic story afterwards.

To start with, here is some specific on-chain activity for BTC:

Token Age Consumed and Transaction volume (on-chain metrics) for BTC

Now, let's have a look on an

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