BTC - War has officially begun

Assets covered: Bitcoin (BTC)

Metrics used: Price, MVRV 365D, Supply on Exchanges, Daily Active Addresses, Network Growth

Charts: https://app.santiment.net/s/khqnqdE6

Price

After weeks of FUD and speculation, the Russia/Ukraine war has officially been declared today.

BTC fell by 6% to the $34,000s as news of the war began to spread. It's still highly correlated with the S&P as markets view it as a risk asset.

BTC vs other asset classes

This can be observed as the market was already pricing in the war and reallocating to other safer assets since 17th Feb as tensions continue to rise, which eventually saw prices Oil and Gold decoupling from BTC and the S&P.

With the latest war declaration, both Gold and Oil broke to the upside strongly.

So much for BTC being a digital gold and safe haven asset class. As much as crypto enthusiasts would like for BTC to be one, the market has decided that it isn't....for now at least.

While the event has happened, it actually opens up further FUD as the outcome of actions and responses by other nations remain uncertain. Who knows what will happen.

If anything, the market conditions is ripe for further FUD, any recovery is likely limited if every other day there's something to spook it.

It's not just BTC that's sliding either, pretty much the crypto cohort is.

Supply on Exchanges

BTC's Supply on Exchanges been on a downtrend for the past year, regardless of price behavior. It did however saw a big dip at the start of Feb 2022, which may indicate that someone/group likely bought in the last major dip in Jan 2022.

However, we are not seeing any panic at the moment even as prices revisit the similar price levels in Jan.

MVRV 360D

BTC's MVRV 365D which measures the long-term profit/loss of holders is showing that we are sitting comfy in the opportunity zone, where historically, the risk reward has shown to be pretty decent for anyone looking at the long term.

Summary

BTC continues to behave as a risk asset in uncertain times, much to the surprise of crypto folks, especially when it lost out to Gold as being a safe haven.

If further uncertainty develops, it's likely that BTC and the cryptomarket continues to get battered accordingly until we see some form of deviation.

That said, it's a sad day for everyone out there. In war, there are no winners, only losers.

Stay safe out there everyone.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.