BTC - 20K....hold your horses...for now

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Dec 10, 2020

Assets covered: BTC

Metrics used: Price, Social Volume, Social Sentiment, Exchange inflow

Summary: Everyone's hoping for BTC to be over 20k but......not so soon sir.

BTC had yet another drop early this week (following the major one just one week before) and hopes of 20k is starting to wane away.

Let's take a look at how things are now.


BTC price action - Sanbase

BTC is still hugging on to the bottom trendline and making higher lows with each drop but it needs to make a higher high soon.

Each major dump saw a spike in volume, which is good as buyers are coming in, but each volume is declining each time. Perhaps buyers are showing signs of exhaustion?


MVRV 30D - Sanbase

After two month of strong MVRV 30D growth, we are finally seeing a healthy decline that coincides well with short-term profit taking.

Ideally, a drop (as what we have seen in late August) into the Undervalued zone would be a nice spot to pick up more BTC.

But for now, it's good to see things start to cool off.

Exchange inflow

Exchange inflow - Sanbase

A sudden huge spike in Exchange inflow (30399.40 BTC) today is showing a warning sign if the previous two spikes are of any indication.

Price has not reacted....yet so it remains to be seen what this sudden spike could be.

Social sentiment and Social Volume

Twitter Social sentiment - Sanbase

Weighted social sentiment for Twitter is showing that the crowd is shifting towards a bearish bias as uncertainty lingers over whether BTC is still able to convincingly break that 20k barrier.

Gone are the

"We'll see BTC over 20K today"

"This is the last time you can buy BTC at 19k".

20k mentions - Sanbase

Notice how they only come at the top? "20k" mention have dropped substantially as each day goes by and BTC gets further away from the 20k mark. There are still mentions of "20k" but we are definitely not seeing the kind of euphoria we saw during the top.

Going forward

This cooling off period is actually good for BTC in the longer run. Signs of profit taking are present and we may see more of it as most participants are in profit at the moment.

There's no major panic yet but the recent Exchange inflow spike is a little worrying. Will have to monitor what the price action is over the next few days.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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Dec 10, 2020

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