A lot can be revealed when looking at the behaviors of different tiers of Bitcoin holders. And though this same analysis can be helpful for any altcoins, in specific, today we will keep our focus solely on the wallets on BTC because the current crypto climate emphasizes increased focus on the sector's top asset.

In general, markets move the opposite direction of the crowd's expectations. And you guessed it - the vast, vast majority of the crowd is comprised of very small wallets (relative to what whales hold). So when markets take a mild downturn, as they have for the past 4 weeks, what we want to be seeing is a drop-off in small wallet holdings, and an increase in large whale and shark holdings.

For efficiency purposes, we have broken down the different sized wallets on the network into the following four groups:

• 0 - 0.1 BTC Wallets (Shrimp)
• 0.1 - 10 BTC Wallets (Fish & Dolphins)
• 10 - 10,000 BTC Wallets (Sharks & Whales)
• 10,000 & Up: (Top Whales & Exchange Wallets)

0 - 0.1 BTC Wallets

Generally, we want to see a continuous decline in these small wallets over time. During most bull runs, most recently the Oct - Dec '24 one, we see the small traders constantly taking profits (too early) as they sell off their bags to the whales in the heat of the rally. This dumping trend finally stopped during the final days of 2024. Since December 29th, they have added a very mild 585 BTC back to their bags as there has been some small effort to "buy the dip". But overall this is essentially flat, compared to their normal movements.

(Neutral Signal for Upcoming Crypto Prices)

0.1 - 10 BTC Wallets

Although these are larger wallets than the little guys, especially with Bitcoin valued at nearly $100K these days, history has shown that bull markets occur most prominently when this tier of traders is dumping. And just like with the 0 - 0.1 tier, this is exactly what happened in the late 2024 bull rally with these wallets. Between October 13th and December 27th, the 0.1 - 10 BTC wallet tier dumped a whopping 84,521 Bitcoin, largely fueling the whale & shark bag (and price) pumps. Since this time, however, these wallets have accumulated back a modest 5,604 BTC.

(Very Mildly Bearish Signal for Upcoming Crypto Prices)

The main beneficiaries of the last bull rally were these 10 - 10,000 BTC wallets, who substantially accumulated throughout the rally as others took profits in a panic and tried to time the tops (mostly unsuccessfully). They accumulated a massive 257K since October 1st (just before the rally began) and 199K BTC since November 5th (the night Trump was elected). Since the end of the year, their accumulation levels have cooled off a bit. But it still appears their confidence is pointing in the right direction, adding 2,997 more BTC since January 1, 2025.

(Very Mildly Bullish Signal for Upcoming Crypto Prices)

The wallets holding 10K or more BTC have had very little alpha on crypto's future price movements. This is even more true when you consider that a 10K BTC wallet is currently worth a laughably high $931M. Over the past 6 months alone, this tier has dropped 218K Bitcoin as mortal-sized wallets have had high demand to purchase coins off of exchanges. During this stretch, the coin's market cap has risen by +57%.

Yes, Blackrock and Microstrategy are amongst this largest tier group of Bitcoin wallets. And it's a good thing when their bags are getting larger. But their holdings still make up a relatively small size compared to the irrelevant distribution made up by exchange wallets on Binance, Coinbase, and many others.

(Neutral Signal for Upcoming Crypto Prices)

And as a bonus, we can take a look at how many total non-empty wallets there are overall on the Bitcoin network. It is exponentially easier to make a wallet worth 0.00001 BTC compared to 1,000 BTC, for example. So you can probably guess that the vast majority of the total wallets on Bitcoin hold under 0.1 BTC (91.8% of all wallets to be exact).

Therefore, we want to be rooting for the overall amount of non-empty wallets to NOT be growing most of the time. Yes, it is a nice thing to see more market participants long-term. But especially when prices are trying to rally, it's a very healthy sign when the amount of wallets is moving down as small traders take profits in a panic (or euphoric haze).

From October 13th through the end of the year (December 31st), there was a net drop of just over 130K Bitcoin wallets, which was a great justifier of the bull rally as it unfolded. Since that time, we have seen a bit of growth again, but nothing spectacular (84.7K wallets).

(Very Mildly Bearish Signal for Upcoming Crypto Prices)

Overall, the signals painted by these different tier groups are tending to "wash each other out" for the time being, creating a very neutral signal for crypto's next few weeks. We understand that it would be much more exciting to have a firm signal pushing one way or the other for the time being. But things can change in a hurry, and we will be on top of any upcoming developments in both our written content and upcoming videos. So don't miss them!

And by all means, bookmark this template for yourself and keep tabs on how these different tier groups are fluctuating as 2025 progresses!

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.