BAND on the run

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Garry Kabankin
Mar 11, 2020

The Band Protocol appeared in Emerging Trends list a few hours ago.

Price gained almost twice last days.


BAND is:

- A decentralized oracle for Web 3.0

- Launched half a year ago via Binance Launchpad

- Has found it's bottom, but not the top yet


1. A solid social volume spike sent BAND to Emerging trends:

And is connected to collaboration with bZx to implement price feed oracle. Details - https://medium.com/bandprotocol/band-protocol-collaborates-with-bzx-to-implement-price-feed-oracles-alongside-chainlink-e48d4e20de19


2. What is this social volume consisting of? The Social Data Feed tool helps to compile this. Last 24h:

Feels quite like excitement, right? Means top may be somewhere near.


3. Now let me show you BAND from an opposite point of view, seen with big calm silent whales. Moving to Sandata, BAND holders distribution page.


3.1. First of all the holders distribution layout is unusual for an asset in top emerging trends:

It says:

  • There is only 371 BAND holder at the moment
  • 43 of them invested more than 50K USD and have enough power to effect the price
  • Biggest cohort is 63 wallets owning from 10 to 100 BAND. It's 5... 50 USD. Dust.

Best to keep in mind that many interpretations below are based on very subtle changes due to BAND's humble overall onchain activity.


From the same chart:

  • Price bottomed at or very close to obvious stop-loss levels before the pump. Fair market or manipulation?
  • Few cohorts of holders sold there.

3.2. Now lets see who sold recently and who hold. Next chart - holders by percent of BAND supply movements:

Many are increasing positions since bottom and not selling. Who are they?


3.2.1. Holders of 1-10 millions of BAND (0.5-5 millions USD):

They are increasing position. As well as other whaelthy cohorts.


3.2.2. Except 100k -1m BAND holders (and retail, but it doesn't matter here):

I don't know

3.3. Now let's separate whales from exchanges. Both may be holding millions right?


3.3.1. Moving to Top Holders percent of total supply - non exchanges:

Non-exchange owners started to accumulate since the second wave of... pump?

Still increasing positions.

3.3.2. The same time exchanges just about to begin increasing BAND holdings:

Means there's no much danger of insane selling pressure yet. Probably. Huge mountain in the middle of the chart makes me doubt it has strong connections with price movements.


3.4. Engaging the whale tracker! What is each doing?


A whale #6 ("6" is his rank on etherscan):

Hehe, may be this is the person who affected the chart of non-holders balances above. Bought on the second wave, still accumulating.


By the way looks like he is heavily speculating on MXC token. Owning like 90% if it's today's trading volume. Registered Santiment users can see this whale's manipulations here - https://app.santiment.net/labs/balance?address=0x18c9cf7f86437398aca31f45365b6168298a5b51&assets[]=machine-xchange-coin&priceMetrics[]=machine-xchange-coin


A whale #44 doesn't look that confident:

He sold (?) at loss, rebought at the bottom and sold again a day later.


Now leaving whales aquarium, moving to a short overview of other metrics.


4. Daily Active Addresses:

Generally bullish, but a bearish divergence may be forming

5. Trading volume:

Bot patterns on low volumes before, then an unusual vertical spike, may be artificial as well

6. Transactions volume, zoom into one week time span:

This pump's spike looks weak. Bearish divergence.

7. MVRV:

Very high on all time ranges. Risk: very high.

Summary.


- BAND's top may be somewhere near.
- Correction may follow.
- And perhaps another leg up then. Before the final drop. Why not?

BANDDEFI
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Garry Kabankin
Mar 11, 2020

Thanks for reading!

If you enjoyed this insight please leave a like, join discussion in the comments and share it with your friends!

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Conversations (3)

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socialtrends

7 months ago

Thanks, Garry. Nice analyses

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mdmrdm

7 months ago

Indeed, again > inspiring analysis

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socialtrends

3 months ago

this aged very well..