What is AMPL

Ampleforth is a new category of monetary assets — one that doesn’t have Bitcoin’s gold-like fixed supply, it doesn’t have Ether’s oil-like utility, it’s not fiat-backed like USDC, and it’s not collateralized like Dai. So what is it? It’s a token whose value comes from having a price which moves in a narrow predetermined band, thanks to a smart contract which automatically adjusts its supply, daily. The end result is a token that is supposed to be traded close to $1, but Ampleforth doesn’t like to be called a stablecoin.

Amount of tokens in supply is adjusted each night. If token price was above $1, the supply expands. If AMPL gets cheaper, the supply contracts. And it affects every AMPL balance in each wallet. An investor wakes up with different AMPL balance each morning. Sounds weird, right? Imagine a token with different price and supply each day. It's Ampleforth nowadays. Some calling it scam.

AMPL's price swings lets us assume behaviour and onchain analysis is still applicable.

And that's what we found.

Narrative

Social Volume

The crowd is definitely paying attention lately (blue bars). Extreme social volumes are rarely positive for the coin’s short-term price performance.

Weighted Social Sentiment

Sentiment is extremely positive. And keeps incresing. We don't see this very often. Dump was bound to happen from these levels.

Sell pressure

Exchange Inflow / Coin Supply on Exchanges

Perfectly articulated spikes of exchange inflow and supply on exchanges on 26th-27th of July are probably correlated with some people taking profits around $2.86-$3.00. Since then price just went crazy down.

Investor confidence

Amount held by top 100 non-exchange addresses

Seems like top non-exchange addresses are very much accumulating (x2 in 3 weeks).

A sneak peak on etherscan:

First four are Ampleforth owned wallets, they are dumping.

The fifth is a smart contract.

Sixth one is whale accumulated 3.5% of AMPL supply whatever it counts:

By the way there's another token sitting in this wallet along with AMPL. Want to know what it is? HEX.

Fundamentals

DAA

This is another outstanding chart along with Sentiment. Daily Active Addresses shows very strong AMPL network activity. But unlike many other coins it can both be good and bad in Ampleforth case because people actively selling or dumping.

Transaction volume

Same trend here, the biggest ever transaction volume detected during this dump. Extreme activity, perhaps speculative.

MVRV

Latest 30d MVRV value is 0.47, well below water. Mean average profit of AMPL holders is -53% in 30 days. Basically a half price loss. It has been lower only once, during the March crash. It could indicate a nice entry for many coins. Not sure about AMPL.

Mean Dollar Invested Age

This is what we call distribution. A freaking waterfall. A lot of people moving their coins. This waterfall has two thresholds. First one coincided with a price bottom. Current one - ?

Age Consumed

AMPL Age Consumed is not good, definitely not what you want to see for a coin you own. Like some long term guys stating

"I am moving the hell out of this coin"

Conclusion

Volatility markers are in place. Whales accumulating, crowd is paying attention. There will be redistribution between both. Just the question at what price level. Signs are concerning and not advising anything financially.