30Day HODL Wave is a Reasonable Trend Change Indicator
I wanted to look at HODL waves behaviour to see if current downturn started in July'2019 would continue or halt.
There can be many complex observations and analysis of these hodl waves. I have published an article regarding that - UNDERSTANDING CRYPTO ECONOMIC CYCLES USING BLOCKCHAIN DATA FROM SANTIMENT for detailed use of HODL waves.
However, in this post I wish to make quick observations as listed below:
- 1. 30 day hodl wave normally is a good indicator of trend reversal
- 2. Continuity of the trend after reversal is supported by higher period waves
- 3. Above observations more or less have been consistent.
If that is true then 30 day hodl wave has started uptrend on 18 October 2019 and lately supported by 60 day and 90 day waves too.
Therefore, it is safe to conclude that downward trend started in Jul'19 has come to an end and from here on upward trend will start barring few trader psychology related swings.