📢 Mean Age

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tzanko
Sep 20, 2019

At Santiment we just released a brand new metric: Mean dollar invested age. Together with Mean coin age that we released several months ago this gives us a radically new way to look at investor behavior on the blockchain.


Here are the graphs for Bitcoin:

Mean coin age and mean dollar age

(If you want to gain access please contact us. We have affordable options for students, researchers or individual investors in addition to our institutional offerings.)


But what is this mean age? It's something very simple. For each coin we see how long it has stayed at its current address and we compute the average of all those ages. The difference between "coin age" and "dollar age" comes from the different way that we compute the averages.


Let's look at an example. We have two Bitcoin HODLers: Alice 👩 and Bob 👨.

Alice bought 1 BTC on January 1st, 2017, while Bob bought 0.5 BTC on January 1st, 2018. If they are still HODLing, 👩 will have right now (on September 20th, 2019) 1 BTC whose age is 992 days, while 👨 will have 0.5 BTC whose age is 627 days. So the mean coin age is:

870.33 days mean coin age for 👩 and 👨


The mean dollar age shows what is the average age of the dollars invested to buy the coins. On January 1st 2017 1 BTC was worth 💲958.70, and one year later it was worth 💲13,391.80. So the the mean dollar invested age for 👩 and 👨 is:


672.71 days mean dollar invested age for 👩 and 👨

The mean coin age is closer to the age of Alice's investment, because it was bigger in terms of BTC, but the mean dollar age was much closer to Bob's investment because it was bigger in dollar terms.


Let's look back to the Bitcoin mean age chart:

Mean coin age and mean dollar invested age for BTC

Every price top so far was accompanied by a drop in the mean coin age and with a significant drop of mean dollar age. During the top on January, 2018 the dollar age went down to just 9 weeks.


You can see that those two metrics can be a very good indicator for when the top of the market is closing near. Ones the ages start declining you should start to pay close attention so that you can sell your holdings at the best moment. If you don't want to miss it better come by and get in touch with us.


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tzanko
Sep 20, 2019

Thanks for reading!

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