Market metrics are indecisive.

Not sure where the market is going, up or down.

Meanwhile there is one group of holders who is betting it will go up:

It's ETH holders from 1k to 10k Ether, owning together close to 12% of total supply.

The possibility of Russia invading Ukraine last week saw increased spikes and prices flip flopping, depending on news that's being churned out.

Which, is also often contradicting, resulting in pretty fearful, uncertain times. Market has responded "Nope, i'm not going to be part of this" as price continues to slide.

Here's an interesting observation by Eugene Ng on Twitter:

Whether it's the market gully, NFT hype dying down or a mix of factors, the average fee to interact with the Ethereum network has slumped to a 3-month low of $13:

At the same time, there's been a noticeble uptick in ETH's daily addresses going hand in hand with the trx fee downslide.

Back during the Oct-Nov rally, both fees and addresses kept climbing as the market was soaring.

Now, we may be seeing a new wave of interest in ETH spurred by low(er) barriers to entry. New addresses interacting with ETH show the same (diverging) pattern:

Early to say, but might be a sign of renewed fundamental strength for the second largest coin?

Ethereum just vaulted by +11% to start the month, breaking above the $3.8k mark for the first time since May 8th.

However, Ethereum's price rally is also accompanied by a massive uptick in average transaction fees, which are hovering at 44(!) USD at the time of writing:

In terms of average trx fees, this makes September 1st the fifth busiest day in the history of the network.

In such conditions, it's not a surprise that the amount of daily addresses interacting with ETH currently sits at 515k, down -35.5% compared to the last time that ETH was at $3.8k:

With exorbitant fees pricing out low-ROI transactions, Ethereum's network activity will likely suffer in the short-term.

Which begs the question - will ETH be able to chart a new price all-time high with sub-optimal fundamentals? This especially as similar spikes in trx fees coincided with short-term price corrections in the past.

Watch this space.

References:

• Snowden - https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1423027349822509062
• Moons, snapshot, karma - https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/oy4cjh/new_moons_distribution_round_16_proposal/
• ETH, London - https://thedefiant.io/eip-1559-economics/

Note that G should be F'

$ETH Price Target 24/09/2021 USD 3300

Looking at the recent price action between 12th May and 26th June and overlaying this on price performance from 20th Feb to 28th Feb I target a double bounce off USD 2000 for $ETH in July before commencing a trend up to USD 3300 by mid/end September.

Likely there will be a consolidation:

$ETH Price Target 24/10/2021 USD 2700

Followed by a further trend upwards towards the end of 2021

For the many who presumed that sub-$2,000 Ethereum could never be a thing again as prices were soaring about $4,000 just six weeks ago, it's been a wild ride. Here's how things look now:

Bullish Signs

MVRV (30-day)

Historically, an average MVRV (30d) of -16.9% implies a less risky opportunity to buy than normal.

Weighted Social Sentiment (Twitter)

The crowd sentiment toward Ethereum is historically low now, a great potential opportunity to buy against the masses.

Average Fees

ETH fees are at their lowest point since December, 2020, clearly allowing more flexibility for users to move assets.

Neutral Signs

Active Addresses vs. Deposits

There was a pretty large uptick in active deposits a few days ago, but more or less, non-active addresses vs. active deposits are about even with one another, historically.

Bearish Signs

Supply on Exchanges

Supply has moved back to exchanges considerably since May's all-time high.

NVT

Token circulation has dried up heavily compared to market cap.