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Ethereum fee spikes - local bottom indicator?
01-03-21, 23:50

Anyone that's used (or tried to use) Ethereum in the past 30-60 days is painfully aware of the mounting fee problem tackling the network.


At the time of writing, the average fee to interact with the Ethereum blockchain stands at $12.2, though it regularly climbs to 3-4x that number on occasion.


What is less talked about, however, is that many recent fee spikes only really last about 30-60 minutes, and often seem to coincide with ETH's local price bottoms and short-term bouncebacks:


Average daily ETH fees, past 3 weeks
Average daily ETH fees, past 7 days


While the pattern is far from conclusive, it may suggest that at least some fee hikes may be prompted by panic sell-offs and 'paper hand' capitulation, which - assuming enough 'buy the dip' pressure - ends up marking an interim bottom for the second largest coin.



Feb 23

How Bitcoin's Exchange Inflow and Large Transactions Can Easily Signal Profit Taking Opportunities
23-02-21, 07:02


Bitcoin shot up to a record-setting ~$58.3k on Sunday. And if you were watching, you would have seen a massive exchange inflow spike:

There were 59,915 BTC in a single hour, just as prices jumped over $58,300. This was the largest spike in 16 weeks. And for context, the 200-hour resting average was sitting at 5,032 BTC moved to exchanges per hour. This means this spike was 1,091% higher than the recent mean.


We can also look at how this spike looked from an Exchange Flow Balance (Inflow minus Outflow) perspective:


Generally, when not preceded by a big outflow, inflow spikes lead to price corrections.


This exchange inflow was assisted by the 2nd largest BTC transaction of 2021 to a large whale address, which instantly disposed of the funds.


The address history shows similar patterns, going all the way back to a contributive quick sell-off on Black Thursday.



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