Feb 27
Feb 24
Feb 23
Bitcoin shot up to a record-setting ~$58.3k on Sunday. And if you were watching, you would have seen a massive exchange inflow spike:
There were 59,915 BTC in a single hour, just as prices jumped over $58,300. This was the largest spike in 16 weeks. And for context, the 200-hour resting average was sitting at 5,032 BTC moved to exchanges per hour. This means this spike was 1,091% higher than the recent mean.
We can also look at how this spike looked from an Exchange Flow Balance (Inflow minus Outflow) perspective:
Generally, when not preceded by a big outflow, inflow spikes lead to price corrections.
This exchange inflow was assisted by the 2nd largest BTC transaction of 2021 to a large whale address, which instantly disposed of the funds.
The address history shows similar patterns, going all the way back to a contributive quick sell-off on Black Thursday.
Feb 22
Feb 19
Bitcoin has soared to an all-time high of $56,287 just a few hours ago. In the past three months, the price has jumped +219%, meaning you would have more than tripled your investment if you opened a BTC position on November 19th and held. So where do our metrics indicate we go from here?
Bullish Cases
Mean Dollar Age
Dormant coins continue moving, as age of invested dollars gets younger.
Network P/L
Realized profit isn't at the same peak level it was a week ago.
Exchange Supply
Bitcoin's supply continues encouragingly moving off exchanges.
Bearish Cases
Bitmex Funding Rate
Bitcoin's ratio of longs vs. shorts on BitMEX is indicating a very high percentage of longs, meaning long traders are paying a premium to short traders.
Whale Holder Addresses
The amount of whale addresses continues to decline after $45,000 on February 7th.
NVT
Based on the green-yellow bars on the right side of this chart, NVT is showing a semi-bullish divergence.
