📊 Sometimes, price correlation breaks can be subtle. The S&P 500 and world stock markets have been hit hard by continued tariff and inflation concerns. Bitcoin has managed a positive week, up about +0.4% with a market value of $84.3K at the time of this writing. The S&P 500, on the other hand, ended the week on a brutal downswing by their standards. Its drop to $5,580 brings them to within distance of its low point back on March 13th.

A key indication of crypto's subtle strength is its 4-hour mild rebound since the stock market's weekly close. This divergence suggests that despite macroeconomic headwinds, crypto is not as reliant on stock markets as the bear cycle in 2022.

These price patterns can be taken as a mildly bullish sign. During uncertain times, digital assets often struggle to decouple from equities. However, when they begin to show independent growth (especially while stock markets are closed), it can signal growing trust in crypto's long-term value and utility.

If global markets begin to stabilize or recover, assets like Bitcoin that have already weathered the recent storm may be in prime position to benefit from renewed institutional accumulation.

📉 Trading volume among crypto's 10 largest stablecoins has dropped to roughly 1/4th of the level we saw in the midst of the bull cycle in early December. Several factors are contributing to this:

📌 Trader Fatigue: Following the all-time high top back on January 19th, both institutional and retail traders have increasingly moved capital and taken profits while awaiting new catalysts.

📌 There have been new regulatory announcements in major markets, raising the level of uncertainty and causing traders of all sizes to take more of a 'hodling' approach for the time being

📌 Bitcoin's supply on exchanges recently reached a 7-year low, indicating trader contentment with executing less on-chain trading on a daily basis

💸 Bitcoin's ratio of supply on exchanges has officially dropped to as low as 7.53%, the lowest since February 20, 2018. The 7-year milestone reflects a continued trend of investors of crypto's top asset feeling comfortable 'hodling' for the long-term, regardless of short-term price volatility and fluctuations.

📉 When $BTC's exchange supply declines, it typically suggests a decrease in short-term sell pressure. Coins held off exchanges are often stored in cold wallets, indicating that holders have less immediate intent to trade or liquidate. This shift reduces the available supply for spot selling, which can act as a buffer against sudden price drops during volatile market conditions. Over time, lower exchange balances have historically coincided with bullish conditions.

🏦 Additionally, the diminishing exchange supply signals growing interest from institutions and long-term custodial solutions. With more BTC moving into self-custody or secure institutional storage, it's evident that market participants are treating Bitcoin more as a store of value than a speculative trading asset. This behavioral shift promotes market stability and maturity.

💸📈 ETF's have taken a positive turn since March 14th, and so has $BTC and altcoins. There have now been seven straight days with more money moving in to Bitcoin ETF's (positive inflow) than moving out (negative inflow). This is the first streak of this length in 2025.

🤑 As crypto has bounced nicely in the second half of March, traders have swung the pendulum back toward mild greed. After showing major fear in late February and early March following two stints of Bitcoin dipping as low as $78K, it appears that this rebound to $88.5K has brought back a dose of optimism to retail traders.

In red, we see mentions of $BTC price predictions across social media ranging between $100K all the way up to $159K. And in tan, we see $BTC predictions from $10K up to $69K. The crowd notoriously gets their predictions WRONG, meaning isolated spikes toward higher prices are a signal we are likely to drop... and isolated spikes toward lower prices are a signal we are likely to rise.

Remember that cryptocurrency markets have ALWAYS historically moved the opposite direction of the crowd's expectations. When you see your timeline filled with "to the moon" or "lambo time", be cautious about upcoming prices. When you see "crypto is dead" or "bitcoin is a scam", this should be music to your ears. 🎶

🐳📈 Bitcoin's price has rallied all the way to ~$88,350 after things looked grim two weeks ago at ~$77,500. Shortly after that local bottom, we began to see a rise in total wallets holding 100 to 10K $BTC. As usual, markets have looked better since whales resumed accumulation.

🥳 In a solid start to crypto's week, Bitcoin reached as high as $88.5K for the first time in 17 days. Ethereum also jumped above $2,100 for the first time in 14 days. Comments across social media are becoming quite positive, indicating many expect this rally to continue.

🗣 Two subjects seeing major rises in social interest to begin the week are:

🐳 Whales: A whale with a 40x leverage short was discovered by the crypto community, with $86,000 as the target price for the community to liquidate the address position. This has created a communal goal for traders to help contribute to a $BTC rise. Traders have seen volatility and retraces shake their own confidence throughout a rocky 2025 thus far, making this an enjoyable dual-purpose mission to help crypto's top asset rebound.

🏦 Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Trump and the US continue to move forward with their plans of a Bitcoin reserve. Meanwhile South Korea recently proposed one that appears as though it may be rejected. North Korea also appears to be moving forward with their own reserve.

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