Yesterday we tried to evaluate possible market moves using crowd sentiment: https://insights.santiment.net/read/monday-crowd-vibes-7128
Now when US Monday trading session is over we might review onchain activity.
With 24h daily active address metric as a proxy.
Long story short, a large number of tokens is now seeing an increasing divergence between price action (up) and active addresses (down).
This is a warning sign, many divergencies now have to be reset by either a price dump or increase in activity.
What could be good to observe on many tokens for a rally is an opposite divergence, similar to MKR:
Until then, we might probably expect some gravity push down.
Charts layout: https://app.santiment.net/s/jvnjSOT2
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.
Compared to strong June dump, liquidations on Aave are not there yet (yellow line).
No super special 'rekt' charts onchain.
While we see kind of bit worrying pattern on many coins, like ETH...
... where there is divergence with latest growth which often leads to decline, AAVE tries to do something different:
If it will not be enough to keep the price, we dump. But we never know.
Aave has been one of top pumping coins last days.
Digging into it's metrics we might notice that most AAVE metrics are looking good and healthy. Confident whales in 'buy' mode, network activity increasing - all good.
However a couple of red flags are clearly visible.
- MVRV 30d:
MVRV is too high. There is a high risk of short term traders taking profits and therefore pressing the price down. Cause this is exactly what MVRV 30d metric is about - average profit of 30d AAVE holders.
2. Whale Transaction Count
Whales transactions count seem to spike around price tops, this is what historical performance shows on the chart above. And the lates spike could also mark a local price top.
Complete onchain metrics AAVE overview: https://app.santiment.net/s/sVbKorXj