MATIC - Is something brewing? ☕

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Aug 26, 2020


MATIC/BTC - Tradingview

MATIC/BTC (4hr chart) recently managed to retest the 200 MA (yellow line) and successfully bounced off it so far. It also appears to be making higher lows within an ascending triangle with 242 sats being the resistance it needs to break above.

Much of the price action recently is a result of BTC/USD topping out at around 12450s and retracing each level.

MATIC/BTC - TradingView

With each BTC/USD dip, MATIC/BTC took a hit. However, it appears that the effects of BTC/USD dip are dwindling as MATIC/BTC is showing strength despite the dumps as it makes higher lows.

Zooming out to the higher timeframes, MATIC/BTC been testing the 240 sats resistance several times now and working within this range of 164 sats to 240 sats (with false breakouts) for the past 265 days.

Higher timeframe price action - Tradingview

As the resistance gets tested over time (circled in blue, 7 times now), it'll be eventually be weakened and a breakout is expected. If we do get a proper S/R flip (unlike the failed tries in the past) this time round, next target would be the 270 sats area on to the psychological barrier of 300 sats.

This 300 sats area might be challenging to break as well eventually. Am expecting a leg up there and fail to consolidate to try again. But once 300 sats is broken, the skies is pretty much clear for MATIC/BTC.

In the meantime, should BTC/USD make another leg down, we are expecting to see a small dip in MATIC/BTC and for it to resume its course to eventually break the ascending triangle. That said, should BTC/USD do a -$1000 candle straight to $10300s, it could wreck the entire setup.

Else if conditions allow, we might just see a break out soon from this range.

Till then, all eyes still remain on BTC.

Supply on exchanges and Top holders

Supply on exchanges - Sanbase

Supply on exchanges is now at an all time low since genesis, sitting at 1.47B (14.7% of total supply) currently. This is generally a good sign as there's less sell pressure on exchanges.

We also noticed that the top 30 non-exchange addresses have seen accumulation during the same period when supply on exchanges dropped. This is likely due to MATIC's staking program being live since 29th June and people were moving to the staking contract.

MATIC staking contract - Etherscan

The staking address now holds 1B MATIC tokens (10% of total supply). However, around 61M tokens (6% of staking contract) in the staking address is from the MATIC team.

It's also worthwhile to mention that majority of the Top 10 wallets belongs to the MATIC team.

Top 10 MATIC addresses - Etherscan

This creates a very controlled supply structure that's easy to track as there's little to no unknown whales that can easily dominate the market - Similar to how LINK was at the start.

That said, the MATIC team will eventually have to distribute the tokens as wide as possible to be decentralized enough in the future.

Daily active addresses (DAA)

Daily active addresses - Sanbase

DAA remains rather healthy compared to the past 1 year, on average, DAA is up by 100% since. This increase in activity suggests that user growth is on an uptrend.

Social volume and Sentiment

Social volume declined following the price rally that topped out around 2 weeks ago when MATIC announced that WazirX was building an AMM protocol on MATIC. It's generally good to see that the crowd is losing interest and less people are mentioning it as the price bounces.

Social sentiment - Sanbase

Social sentiment is almost neutral now following the same price rally, which is a healthy sign. As the previous spike in social sentiment was a signal for a local top. Now that things have cooled down, and generally the crowd have lost interest, MATIC is primed for another leg up if there's any sudden announcements or rumours that pop up.

Going forward

Price action, on-chain data, and sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook for MATIC over the coming weeks. As long as BTC ranges, which will then allow for a mini altparty, MATIC should benefit from it too.

However, it's is important to note the emission schedule of MATIC. This is because according to Messari, from OCT 15th to OCT 28th, more tokens are entering the circulating supply and going to the following groups:

Private investors: 190,000,000

Advisors: 133,333,333.3

Foundation: 273,333,333.3

Ecosystem: 466,666,666.6

Token emission before OCT 15 - Messari
Token emission by OCT 28th - Messari

Even if MATIC is going to rally through September, we might eventually see this supply emission schedule being priced in as we draw closer to the date and the market learns about it.

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Aug 26, 2020

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