Is ETH nearing the top ?
1. Some TA with the focus on the behaviour analyses.
It is very typical, that after the long bear market any rally attempt is retraced to at least 61,8 %. The fear and memory of the long painful decline is strong, so market typically drops deep.
In our case, however, market didn't even reach 61,8 %.
This number - 61,8 % is well known to the majority of the professional market participants.
Why we didn't get there ?
Probably the answer here is -> the desire to buy was stronger than fear. This strong green candle (from $113 to $140) represents the behaviour of some players who "pretty sure the bottom is in, it's close to the maximum possible retracement - no needs to wait any longer".
But that's not the end.
2. Let's continue with some pure "crowd behaviour analyses".
Run this search on Santiment.net platform - https://app.santiment.net/trends/explore/eth%20AND%20(constantinople%20OR%20fork)
Here is the screen shot at the moment of writing.
What do we have here?
The most likely "reasoning" from the crowd for the rise in ETH will be "the mining reward is going down. The supply is going down - so the price has to go up".
It's never easy as this, of cause. Price is determined by too many factors. Many of these reasons are mostly unknown to the majority before the price has moved.
Once the crowd knows why the price has to go up - it is mostly the time when it's already at the top.
Here comes probably the most exciting (and challenging) question - so where comes the top for the current ETH rally? Are we there already and the next stop is below $100? Will it be at $200 or $400?
No one really knows - that is the only honest answer.
However, we have a lot of interesting data to look into. We can try to predict what happens next, based on it.
The top probably could come under two conditions.
- The "social volume" search from above shows typical "top" pattern. Price is still growing, yet the "talk volume" is declining.
- Extreme spike in social talk/volume. That will very likely means - everyone will jump on board
- The "relative social dominance of ETH" (chart is below) spikes above average values
As visible on the bottom chart - the ETH is getting there. Just about to claim almost 50 % of the social buzz in crypto.