BTC possible trend reversal - Will history repeat itself?

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Apr 24, 2019

After what felt like a never-ending crypto winter, BTC may finally be showing signs of a trend reversal. Behold, the first golden cross confirmed in over 3 years (The last was seen in October 2015.).

Behold, the Golden Cross!

The Golden cross is a technical indicator that's formed when an asset's 50-day moving average price goes above the 200-day moving average price, which for analysts signals a typical bullish outlook ahead.

But why the significance?

The last time a Golden cross was seen, BTC kicked off the bulltrend, going from $246 in October 2015 to almost $20,000 in December 2017. It's no wonder many are getting excited.

However, it is important to note that in 2015, there was also another a Golden cross that happened in July but was invalidated by a 27% downward movement. Bearing that in mind, could the same happen again?

Let's bring in another indicator, the MVRV ratio. Basically, if the MVRV ratio is below 1, the asset is considered undervalued and conversely the higher the ratio, the more overvalued it is.

Golden Cross and MVRV

2015 was a significant year for Bitcoin, as we observed in the chart above, not only did the Golden cross happened, BTC actually bottomed out prior the the 1st Golden cross on 14th January 2015. The MVRV ratio then was 0.633.

The other time we would see the MVRV ratio hit levels so close to 2015's bottom was on 15th December 2018 where the MVRV ratio was 0.715. Since then, BTC price has bounced and have seen its 1st Golden cross recently. Now, history may not repeat itself but it often rhythms.

Whichever the case, we now have strong indicators showing that

  1. BTC probably bottomed out in late 2018
  2. Trend reversal is upon is, just a matter of time for confirmation.

So buckle up and enjoy the ride, wherever this goes.

Now that the king has spoken, everyone shall bow. Most alts took a real good hit across the board, sending BTC dominance from 50%+ back up to 54%, once again showing who's the real boss in town.

All hail the king

That being said, alts may eventually see some relieve (hopefully) as BTC's golden cross may be preceded by consolidation or a pullback according to analysts. The next few weeks/months will certainly be interesting to watch so keep an eye out!

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Apr 24, 2019

Thanks for reading!

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